Chiefs’ Best Playoff Route: Surprisingly Rooting for the Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a precarious position as they navigate their playoff ambitions amid a challenging season. Following a 20-10 defeat to the Houston Texans, quarterback Patrick Mahomes expressed concern about the team’s dwindling playoff chances.
Chiefs’ Current Playoff Situation
The Chiefs currently hold a record of 6-7, giving them approximately a 12% chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. This probability can rise significantly if the team wins its next four games:
- vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- at Tennessee Titans
- vs. Denver Broncos
- at Las Vegas Raiders
If the Chiefs manage to win all these matches, their playoff chances could increase to 45%. However, they do not completely control their destiny.
Key Games Impacting Playoff Chances
A critical matchup for the Chiefs will be the Week 18 game between the Chargers and Broncos. The outcome of this game could heavily influence Kansas City’s postseason prospects:
- If the Chiefs win all remaining games and the Broncos beat the Chargers, Kansas City’s playoff chances rise to 72%.
- If the Chiefs win out but the Chargers win against the Broncos, their chances plummet to 7%.
This dramatic shift underscores the importance of tiebreaker scenarios. The Chiefs have lost direct matches against significant competitors, including Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Houston, necessitating victories and losses for those teams to secure a playoff spot.
Tiebreaker Scenarios Explained
To enhance their playoff prospects, several conditions need to unfold for the Chiefs:
- Indianapolis (8-5) must lose two of their remaining four games.
- The Chargers (9-4) need to drop three of their last four, which includes the matchup against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs must avoid complications from Baltimore winning all games and Pittsburgh achieving a strong finish.
Successfully navigating these obstacles could create a fascinating Week 18 scenario where the Broncos might have the opportunity to either secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed or keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs.
Potential Outcomes and Implications
The Chiefs could find themselves in an unusual position not seen in recent seasons. They risk elimination from playoff contention if they lose their upcoming games, while the Bills and other AFC competitors win. For the Chiefs, who have enjoyed ten consecutive playoff appearances—second only to the New England Patriots’ eleven—this season represents a significant challenge.
As the Chiefs look ahead, the outcomes of the remaining games and the performances of rival teams will be pivotal in determining their playoff fate.
