Ukrainian Troops Strain Under Intense Southern Pressure Amid Shortage

Ukrainian forces are facing intense pressure in the southern region of Ukraine, particularly around Huliaipole. This town has become a focal point amid growing confrontations with Russian brigades, which have made significant territorial gains recently.

Current Situation in Southern Ukraine

Russian units are reportedly outnumbering their Ukrainian counterparts substantially. They have advanced across several areas within the Zaporizhzhia region, capturing hundreds of square kilometers. An officer from Ukraine’s security service (SBU), known by the call sign “Bankir,” described the situation as “intense.”

The officer indicated that Russian forces are striving to enhance their negotiating stance by seizing additional territory. These troops utilize small infantry groups that attempt to breach Ukrainian defenses through the least protected routes.

Significant Territorial Gains

• Recent Russian advances have centered around Huliaipole, located approximately 80 kilometers (50 miles) east of Zaporizhzhia.
• According to Russian Col. Gen. Andrei Ivanaev, President Vladimir Putin was informed that over 210 square kilometers had been taken since early December.
• Ukrainian conflict monitors report that while Ukrainian troops maintain some positions in Huliaipole, it has transformed into a “grey zone” of mixed control.

Challenges Facing Ukrainian Forces

The Ukrainians are struggling with personnel shortages in this area. Deepstate, a conflict mapping organization, emphasized that Russian forces outnumber Ukrainians significantly. The low-lying terrain of Huliaipole complicates reinforcement efforts, making it a challenging battleground.

Ukrainian forces have relied heavily on drones in these fights, especially in open areas where they can target Russian units effectively. However, urban environments with abandoned buildings provide cover for advancing enemy troops.

Command and Logistics Issues

Last week, a video released showed Russian troops taking control of a Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole. This incident was acknowledged by Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military, who cited inadequate defenses as a reason for the loss. He criticized the territorial brigade for not securing sensitive information during their retreat.

• Syrskyi stated, “The brigade could not withstand the enemy’s pressure during the fighting.”
• Independent monitors suggest that Ukrainian forces may now only control the western part of Huliaipole.

Strategic Decisions and Personnel Losses

The events in Huliaipole highlight a critical dilemma for Ukrainian military strategy. Analysts have noted that Ukrainian troops are significantly outnumbered along the extensive 1,000-kilometer front line, exacerbated by difficulty in mobilizing additional forces.

Strategic choices are becoming increasingly challenging for commanders, who must decide where to attack, defend, or avoid gaps in their lines. As noted by military analyst David Axe, territorial units alone cannot successfully fend off larger Russian brigades without adequate support.

Since mid-December, some elite Ukrainian units were redirected to Huliaipole, but it may have been too late to prevent its capture. The overall lack of coherent command and the prioritization of other regions have likely contributed to the deteriorating conditions in the south.