OPEC+ Maintains Output Pause, Citing Market Stability by Eight Producers

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production levels through the first quarter of 2026. This decision comes from eight leading producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Their primary focus is on ensuring market stability amid a stable global economic forecast.

OPEC+ Meeting Overview

The meeting took place virtually on January 4, 2026. This was a follow-up to their earlier decision announced on November 2, 2025, to pause any planned production increases for February and March 2026. The producers noted that seasonal demand patterns played a significant role in this decision.

Market Conditions and Oil Prices

A joint statement from the eight producers highlighted that current market conditions remain favorable. They pointed out that relatively low global inventories indicate a balanced oil market, despite an 18% decline in prices throughout 2025, the largest decrease since the pandemic. Increased supply has outpaced demand, leading to a growing glut in the market.

Production Cuts and Flexibility

• The group has announced 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary production cuts.
• They may gradually return these cuts to the market, depending on evolving conditions.
• Flexibility is essential to their strategy, which may include extending or adjusting previous cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023.

Commitment to Cooperation

OPEC+ has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation. The producers plan to address any overproduction since January 2024 by compensating accordingly. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will oversee compliance and compensation efforts.

Geopolitical Context

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as those between Saudi Arabia and the UAE related to Yemen, and uncertainties in Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, OPEC+ delegates confirmed these issues would not impact their short-term policy decisions.

Next Steps

The eight OPEC+ countries agreed to hold regular monthly meetings to evaluate market conditions, compliance, and compensation progress. The next meeting is set for February 1, 2026, where they will continue to assess the oil market’s dynamics.