Donald Trump’s First Year Economy: Analyzed Through 7 Charts
As Donald Trump completed his first year in office after re-election in 2025, significant economic changes unfolded. This period marked a transition in trade, immigration, and the federal workforce. According to Elizabeth Renter, a senior economist at NerdWallet, uncertainty surrounding policy changes has deeply affected consumers, job seekers, and businesses.
Economic Overview of Trump’s First Year
Despite many challenges, the economy displayed resilience. The pace of change introduced both opportunities and uncertainties, influencing spending and hiring practices across various sectors.
Job Growth Analysis
Job growth reached the lowest point in decades, with only 584,000 jobs added in 2025, excluding recession periods. Factors such as policy uncertainty, tariffs, and immigration issues contributed to this stagnation. Jason Draho from UBS Global Wealth Management emphasized the reluctance of companies to invest amid unclear economic conditions.
- 584,000 jobs added in 2025
- Lowest job growth outside a recession since 2003
GDP Growth and Spending Patterns
Even with job growth slowing, the economy experienced real GDP increases in the second and third quarters. Gregory Daco from EY noted ongoing economic resilience. However, this growth is threatened by an aging workforce and declining net migration.
Federal Workforce Changes
Federal employment decreased by 9% in December compared to the previous year. The administration’s focus on increasing efficiency resulted in significant workforce reductions. Many former government employees are struggling economically, highlighting the broader impact of these policies.
- Federal employment down 9% in December 2025
- Reduction due to agency efficiency measures
Manufacturing Sector Struggles
Manufacturing jobs fell by 0.5% year-over-year as weak growth persisted from prior years. Renter pointed out that tariffs aimed at revitalizing manufacturing may not yield results in the short term.
- Manufacturing employment down 0.5% in December
Tariffs and Inflation Dynamics
The effective tariff rate reached its highest levels in decades. Tariff-induced uncertainty led to fluctuating inflation rates, although inflation has subsided since its 9% peak in 2022. Renter suggested that tariffs continue to exert pressure on consumer prices, complicating monetary policy decisions.
Consumer Spending Trends
Despite economic uncertainties, consumer spending remained robust but exhibited a “K-shape” trend. Wealthier Americans spent more while lower-income groups reduced expenditures. This disparity reflects pre-existing structural economic patterns.
- Wealthy consumers increased spending
- Lower-income households tightened budgets
Outlook for the Future
Looking ahead, Trump’s administration continues to announce policy tweaks, like a cap on credit card interest rates. Analysts, such as Draho, argue that significant economic effects have likely been exhausted with the major policy changes already implemented. The future underscores the importance of navigating the ongoing complexities in trade and labor markets to sustain economic momentum.
