Why Sheinbaum Approved Major Operation Against Drug Lord Now
The recent operation targeting Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” epitomizes Mexico’s precarious position between combating drug cartels and maintaining national stability. This ambitious strike in Jalisco resulted in the death of El Mencho, the formidable leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and one of the most wanted criminals in the Americas. However, this bold move wasn’t made lightly, as it unfolds amidst a complex backdrop of political pressures and imminent global scrutiny with the upcoming World Cup.
Why Sheinbaum Approved Major Operation Against Drug Lord Now
In the early hours of Sunday, federal forces executed an extensive operation in Jalisco that left over 30 criminal suspects, 25 National Guard members, a local prosecutor, and one civilian dead. Simultaneously, 85 roadblocks were reported across 11 states, accompanied by acts of arson targeting vehicles and gas stations. The urgency of the operation was amplified by the approaching World Cup in June, adding a layer of strategic calculation for President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration.
Political analysts draw attention to three core factors motivating the timing of this operation. First, the Mexican government sensed a unique opportunity to strike against the CJNG while assessing its capacity to manage the subsequent violence. Second, external pressure from the United States, particularly from President Trump’s insistence on more aggressive actions against drug cartels, played a significant role. Finally, the Mexican government calculated that post-war economic turmoil during the World Cup would be disastrous; thus, timely action against El Mencho was deemed essential before the tournament could exacerbate pre-existing security challenges.
| Stakeholder | Before Operation | After Operation |
|---|---|---|
| Mexican Government | Pressure to act against drug violence | Executed operation, removed major cartel leader |
| CJNG | Controlled significant territory with El Mencho | Leadership void could lead to instability |
| U.S. Government | Demanding greater enforcement measures | Buoyed by Mexican action, potential for closer intelligence collaboration |
| Local Communities | Feeling unsafe due to cartel activities | Mixed reactions; some instability from cartel retaliation |
| International View | Skeptical of Mexico’s commitment to changes | Increased scrutiny and potential international support |
Contextualizing the Violence
The CJNG’s notorious reputation as one of the most violent organizations in the region presents substantial implications for the Mexican government’s ability to maintain order. In stark contrast to the competition within the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG displays a centralized leadership structure under El Mencho, which may minimize fragmentation risks after his death. However, authorities must anticipate potential retaliatory movements and other shifts within the cartel’s ranks as various factions vie for power.
As they maneuver through this complex landscape, Mexican officials are not operating in isolation. Since Trump assumed the Presidency in 2025, Mexico has been under persistent scrutiny for its security strategies, with increasing calls for tighter cooperation. Although Sheinbaum has dismissed the idea of U.S. military intervention, the operation’s execution in conjunction with U.S. intelligence underscores the delicate interplay of sovereignty and shared responsibility in combating drug trafficking.
Projected Outcomes
Looking ahead, several developments can be anticipated as a result of the operation against El Mencho:
- Retaliatory Attacks: Expect increased violence as the CJNG and other factions respond to the leadership vacuum.
- Changes in Drug Trade Dynamics: The power play among cartels may lead to new alliances forming or existing ones fracturing.
- International Relations: The U.S. may increase its support and collaboration, including intelligence sharing, leading to further Mexican mobilization against organized crime.
As these events unfold, the consequences of the decision to dismantle one of the most powerful figures in organized crime are sure to resonate beyond Mexico, affecting regional stability and international drug control strategies.
