Brent Crude Price Nears $120 as Strait Closure and Gulf Attacks Fuel $200 Fears
The brent crude price has surged as wartime disruptions and attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure tighten supply; market watchers say losses of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on regional facilities have pushed benchmarks sharply higher. Prices spiked in early March and have stayed above the $100 level amid escalating attacks and closures of key terminals. The prospect of $150 to $200 oil is now being openly discussed by analysts and industry figures.
Brent Crude Price: Key developments
As of March 9, 2026 (ET), the global benchmark hit nearly $120 per barrel and, in the weeks following, did not dip below $100 after March 13, 2026 (ET). Subsequent strikes and counterstrikes in the Gulf further tightened markets: an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gasfield on March 18, 2026 (ET) prompted Iranian attacks on oil and gas facilities across Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, pushing crude above $108 on the following Wednesday. Separately, an Iranian attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal and two refineries in Kuwait forced shutdowns and added to the supply squeeze; one readout notes Brent rose to $116. 38 per barrel from under $73 on the eve of the conflict.
Immediate reactions
Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, warned: “Benchmark Middle Eastern crudes like Oman and Dubai have already crossed the $150 threshold, so $200 is already within sight, even if not for Brent and West Texas Intermediate. ” Chad Norville, president of Rigzone, said: “Strategic reserves and replacement barrels can stabilise prices if the market believes supply will meet demand, but if flows through Hormuz were materially disrupted for a sustained period, prices well above $100, even approaching $200, are plausible. ” Wood Mackenzie analysts have also flagged the possibility that Brent could soon hit $150 and that $200 is not “outside the realms of possibility” in 2026.
Context and immediate market effects
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the disruption: it is the conduit for roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime, and after Iran declared the strait closed traffic largely stopped. Governments coordinated releases from strategic reserves—400 million barrels committed in cooperation with the International Energy Agency—but analysts warn those reserves cannot fully offset halted tanker flows. OCBC Group Research estimated the market faces a daily shortfall on the order of millions of barrels when reserve releases are counted.
What’s next
Market direction now hinges on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and whether Gulf energy terminals recover quickly. If disruptions persist, market watchers say the brent crude price could move substantially higher, testing $150 and even the $200 mark flagged by analysts and industry figures. Watchers will be tracking shipping movements, repair progress at attacked facilities, and any additional coordinated releases from strategic reserves in the days ahead; developments will determine whether current spikes prove temporary or evolve into a prolonged price shock. (As of the last cited events in March 2026 ET. )
