National Hurricane Center updates cone forecast for 2026 season

The national hurricane center will change several forecast products beginning with the 2026 hurricane season, including a forecast cone that is more elliptical and an image that now includes inland watches and warnings. Robbie Berg said the center is moving to the 90th percentile, a shift tied to the cone’s update-to-update accuracy.

The new experimental cone is designed so the center should move outside it only one tenth of the time, or 10% of the time, Berg said.

Robbie Berg on the cone

Berg said, "We're moving to what's called the 90th percentile, meaning the center should only move outside that cone one tenth of the time, or 10% of the time. So there's less of a chance that the center will move outside of that new experimental cone." The hurricane center will also mark tropical waves with a 0% chance for developing with a grey X on the tropical outlook map.

Inland watches and Hawaii

The forecast materials now include inland watches and warnings, expanding beyond the coastal tropical watches and warnings previously shown in the hurricane center’s product. For Hawaii, storm surge watches, warnings, flooding, and surge forecasts are now available for the islands. That gives the public a broader map of where alerts can reach as the 2026 hurricane season begins under the new products.

2026 hurricane season

The change gives forecasters and the public a different cone graphic before the next Atlantic season starts using it. It also puts inland alerts in the same forecast materials that already show coastal threats, so the map now covers more of the places that can face storm impacts. Berg’s 90th percentile standard is the clearest sign of the center’s aim: a cone that is less likely to be left behind by the forecast track.