Emily Wallace Tracks 83% Off-Market Sales as Melbourne Housing Price Decline Continues
Melbourne housing price decline is still only slight, but the selling pattern is changing fast. Emily Wallace says more vendors are moving off market because they do not want exposure in the turbulent market, and landlords are increasingly among those choosing to sell.
“I was chatting to an agent at an open [home] earlier in the day yesterday, and they basically said a lot of their vendors are going off market, because they just don't want the exposure in this turbulent market,” Wallace said. “They are prepared to sell, but not in public.”
Wallace Sees 83% Off-Market
83 per cent of Wallace’s agency purchases in one month were off-market sales, after it bought six properties and five of them never reached a public campaign. She said the average for 2025 was 58 per cent overall, a sign that the private channel has become routine rather than occasional.
58 per cent off-market purchases across 2025 points to a seller pool that is adapting to lower visibility and lower scrutiny. Wallace said off-market sales can also cost less because sellers do not pay major listing portals or a marketing or auction campaign, which gives the method a practical appeal even if it is “unlikely to be the most beneficial option” for the seller.
Investors Trim Victoria Rent Rolls
10,274 fewer rental bonds were active across Victoria in late 2025, the cleanest data point in the story pointing to shrinking rental stock. Wallace said, “We're getting a lot of properties that do belong to investors, like so many investors are selling out,” as agencies report a “massive decline” in their rent rolls.
10,274 fewer active bonds also fits the vendor shift Wallace is seeing on the ground: properties sold to first home buyers leave fewer homes on agency books, and that reduces the inventory available for landlords to keep renting out. In practical terms, buyers facing the Melbourne market are increasingly meeting sellers who are willing to transact, but only away from the spotlight.
Late 2025 Bond Data
Late 2025 bond data showed the change had already been building in the background before Wallace posted her update this week. She said the trend has left off-market selling looking like “a safety blanket for vendors,” even as it can limit the public price discovery that a standard campaign would normally create.
For Melbourne buyers, that means the clearest deals may now sit outside the usual portal listings, and agents who can find them first are getting access to more of the market. For landlords, the numbers point in the opposite direction: more stock is leaving the rental pool, and the squeeze is showing up in the bond data already.
