Scientists urge New Orleans relocation planning now in Guardian study
Scientists say guardian planning for New Orleans needs to begin now, after a new study in Nature tied the city’s future to rising seas, sinking land and stronger storms. The warning extends to surrounding coastal Louisiana communities and centers on relocation, also called managed retreat.
They said New Orleans has improved its levees, floodwalls and drainage, but those defenses may not keep pace over the coming decades. The study says that with 3 meters of water rise, the city would be essentially an exposed island in the Gulf, cut off from the rest of the state.
Nature study on coastal Louisiana
The study examined climate change’s role in sea-level rise, subsidence and intensifying extreme weather. It says sea level in the region is rising faster than the global average because the land is sinking at the same time the ocean is rising.
Since 2005, at least 5 major hurricanes have struck the Louisiana coast. Research cited in the study links Rita, Laura and Delta, all of which struck Cameron Parish, to a major part of that parish’s 50% population decline over the last 24 years.
Population loss in Orleans Parish
Orleans Parish has had a 25% population decline over the last 24 years, and St. Bernard Parish has had a 25% population decline over the same period. The study uses those declines to show how repeated storm impacts can reshape where people live long before a final move becomes official policy.
The article says 10 feet of water rise is an enormous number and that none of us will witness this in our lifetimes. Even so, the scientists say relocation would have to be part of city planning and strategy now if New Orleans and smaller Louisiana towns are to manage the long-term risk.
New Orleans planning choices
For residents and local leaders, the practical question is whether to keep investing in protection alone or start planning for a gradual move in the places most exposed to future flooding. The study places New Orleans among the most at-risk urban areas in the United States and argues that managed retreat is the course scientists recommend now.
