Bill Gray Predicts 2026 Falcon 9 Lunar Collision Near Einstein Crater

Bill Gray says a spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is on course for a falcon 9 lunar collision on 5 August 2026 at about 06:44 UTC. He said the object should hit near Einstein crater, giving lunar watchers a specific target instead of a broad window.

The stage came from the 2025-010D Falcon 9 rocket, which launched in January 2025 carrying the Blue Ghost mission 1 and the Hakuto-R Mission 2 Moon landers. Gray said the object now takes about 26 days to orbit Earth, with a perigee of about 220,000 kilometers and an apogee around 510,000 kilometers.

Bill Gray and Project Pluto

Gray, an independent astronomer and developer of Project Pluto software, said the motion of the stage is predictable because it follows gravity from the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets. “The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets. We know those with immense precision,” he said.

He also said the timing is lining up because “on August 5, they'll reach that point at the same time,” adding, “The orbit of the Moon and of this object, roughly speaking, intersect. Usually, one goes through the intersection point while the other is someplace else.”

2025-010D Falcon 9

The upper stage is part of a partially reusable Falcon 9 rocket, and Gray said many similar second stages have either fallen back to Earth or moved into orbits around the Sun. The Moon has taken comparable hits before, including Apollo modules, NASA’s LCROSS probe in 2009, and a likely Chang'e 5-T1 booster in 2022.

This collision would leave a fresh crater on the lunar surface. For readers tracking the event, the key point is that the forecast now ties the impact to a date, a time, and a location around Einstein crater rather than to a loose prediction.

Moon Impact Forecast

Gray’s figures put the event at about 06:44 UTC, which is 02:44 EDT, and he says the object will intersect the Moon near the same point in space on 5 August 2026. That leaves lunar observers with the practical task of watching for the impact itself and the crater it is expected to carve.