Pep Guardiola backs 11/10 both teams to score in Palace preview
pep guardiola goes into Manchester City’s meeting with Crystal Palace after a 3-0 home win over Brentford, but the preview still finds value in both teams to score at 11/10. City are priced at 2/9 for another home win, yet Palace have scored in four of the five head-to-head meetings and have scored multiple times in three.
Brentford and Arsenal shape the price
City’s 3-0 victory on Saturday sharpened the case for another controlled performance, while Arsenal’s controversial win at West Ham kept the title picture from moving City’s way. The preview treats that backdrop as part of the market rather than the match itself, with Guardiola’s side still the clear favourites and the goals angle sitting alongside the home win.
That is where the match-up gets more interesting for bettors. Crystal Palace have created 1.34 xGF per game against City across the five-match sample, while City have averaged 2.33 xGF per game against Palace. Those numbers point to Manchester City carrying more threat overall, but they also leave room for Palace to get on the scoresheet, especially with Guardiola having won only three of the five meetings between the managers’ teams.
Nathan Ake and Nico O'Reilly
The supporting plays follow the same logic. Nathan Ake is backed for 1+ total shot at 5/6 after managing two shots from dead-ball situations against Brentford, and he has recorded a shot in seven of his last 11 starts. Nico O'Reilly is priced at 5/1 to be carded, a line that sits against a referee profile that has leaned busy this season.
Stuart Attwell has averaged 4.74 cards per game in the Premier League this season. That gives the booking market a firmer base than a standard player prop, especially in a match where Palace’s set-piece defending has been under pressure and City’s delivery could keep them pinned back for stretches.
Oliver Glasner and Palace rotation
Oliver Glasner’s side also enter with schedule pressure of their own. Palace have a game on Sunday, host Arsenal on the final day and then play the UECL final three days later, so rotation is expected to affect the setup here.
That leaves City with the stronger home position, but not a clean one-sided script. Palace beat Manchester City in last season’s FA Cup final, and they have already shown enough against Guardiola’s team to support the 11/10 both-teams-to-score angle rather than push the market toward a simple shutout.
