Karen Chapple Cites 42% Canadian Travel To Us Drop in Cities
Canadian travel to us drop has deepened beyond vacation trips, according to a University of Toronto School of Cities analysis published Tuesday. The study found a 42% year-over-year median decline in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas, with the steepest losses in places such as Dallas and Grand Rapids.
University of Toronto Analysis
Karen Chapple, the analysis coauthor and director of the University of Toronto’s School of Cities, said the figures show the decline is not limited to leisure travel. “The story these numbers tell us is that it’s not just tourist travel—a lot of it is tourist travel—but there’s other travel that’s hurt as well,” she said.
The analysis found major declines in tourism cities such as Orlando and Las Vegas, but also in industrial and financial hubs. Dallas saw a nearly 50% year-over-year drop in Canadian visitors, and Grand Rapids saw a 53% drop.
Las Vegas And Dallas
Las Vegas still drew just under 1.2 million Canadian tourists in 2025, down from 1.4 million in 2024, a 17.4% decline. Last September, Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley urged Canadians to visit the city, saying, “As the mayor of Las Vegas, I’m telling everybody in Canada, please come. We love you, we need you, and we miss you.”
In early 2026, Scotiabank opened a regional headquarters in Dallas, placing another Canadian-linked business presence in a city where Canadian visitor traffic had already fallen sharply. Business travel represents about 20% of total travel to the U.S., but it accounts for about 60% of air and lodging revenue, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Tariffs And Sentiment
More than a full year has passed since President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tax on most Canadian imports as part of global tariffs. In February, a poll of 2,000 Canadian adults found 58% believed the U.S. was not a reliable ally, and nearly 80% said Trump had made the relationship between Canada and the U.S. weaker.
Chapple said the pattern may reflect spillover from private choices into work travel. “It’s probably driven by a feeling that, if we’re going to boycott in our personal lives, let’s do it in our work lives too,” she said. The Center for Economic and Policy Research said that by mid-2025, U.S. establishments with the highest share of Canadians among visitors had about 6% fewer employees than less exposed markets, a gap it estimated translated to 14,000 to 42,000 lost jobs.
Canadian Markets
The practical effect for airlines, hotels and city economies is concentrated in the places that depend most on Canadian traffic. The University of Toronto analysis shows the fall is broad enough to reach both leisure destinations and business-heavy metro areas, which leaves fewer Canadian trips flowing into the routes, rooms and office visits that support those markets.
