Mary Johnson Sees 3.2% 2026 Social Security Cola Projection
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said the 2026 social security cola projection could rise to 3.2%, nearly double her pre-Iran war forecast of 1.7%. The Senior Citizens League puts the 2027 adjustment at 3.3%, and Social Security’s announcement is expected in October.
Mary Johnson’s 3.2% Estimate
Johnson’s forecast would be a step up from the 2.8% COLA Social Security recipients received in 2026. She tied the higher estimate to inflation pressure that has built since early March, when the invasion of Iran began.
Her 3.2% call is not a small revision. Johnson said it is nearly double her earlier 1.7% forecast, which shows how quickly the inflation picture changed over a short period.
The Senior Citizens League’s 3.3%
The Senior Citizens League now pegs the 2027 adjustment at 3.3%, slightly above Johnson’s estimate. Both figures point to a larger increase than the 2.8% delivered for 2026, giving beneficiaries an early picture of where the next adjustment may land.
The projected increase is a national average, not a personal guarantee. People who drive a lot or live in high-cost cities such as New York or San Francisco could still see their expenses outrun the raise, even if the adjustment comes in near these estimates.
October COLA Announcement
The Social Security COLA announcement is expected in October, when the government will set the figure for 2027. Until then, the most concrete numbers on the table are Johnson’s 3.2% forecast and The Senior Citizens League’s 3.3% estimate.
For beneficiaries, the practical takeaway is simple: a larger 2027 increase is now on the board, but the size of each person’s monthly relief will still depend on where they live and how they spend.
