US Navy expands Uss Nimitz Caribbean Deployment near Cuba
Verify analysis of Flightradar24 data shows the uss nimitz caribbean deployment has put at least five US Navy P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft and three MQ-4C Triton surveillance drones near Cuba since 11 May. Some of the aircraft have flown as close as 50 miles from the island, a public track that reveals a sustained American watch pattern rather than a single pass.
On 11 May, a US Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance jet got within 50 miles of southern Cuba. The same aircraft continued into 12 May, flew north of Havana, and then returned to its base in Jacksonville, Florida. On 15 May, two US MQ-4C Triton surveillance drones operated off the coast of southern Cuba.
Mark Cancian on ship arrivals
Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at CSIS, said the recurrent flight paths “indicate an intention to spot ship arrivals from the south, primarily, and secondarily from the north.” Cancian also said, “None of the flights are over land, so this is not some preparation for invasion,” and said he doubts the flights are “routine” because the United States has limited numbers of P-8s and MQ-4C Tritons available.
Rubio and Cuba's pressure point
The flights come as US-Cuba tensions have risen significantly in recent months. Washington has imposed an effective oil blockade on Cuba, and Cuba's fuel crisis has led to major power blackouts and protests. Verify says the public surveillance flights suggest the United States is seeking to enforce the blockade and apply pressure on the Cuban government, while also trying to deter allies like Venezuela from attempting to send energy shipments to Cuba.
Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, offered a “new relationship” with the Cuban people on Wednesday and blamed Cuba's communist leadership for “unimaginable hardships.” Cuba's foreign minister responded to Axios reporting about Havana's drone capability by saying Cuba “neither threatens nor desires war” and calling Washington's case for military intervention a “fraudulent case.”
Public flight tracking
Dr Steve Wright, a UK drone expert, said the US leaving flight transponders on is “is likely deliberate” and described the flights as “a clear message it has eyes in the sky to maintain the squeeze.” The public nature of the tracks makes the deployment visible to Cuban officials, Venezuelan officials, and anyone monitoring plane-tracking websites, and it leaves a documented record of where the aircraft have gone over several days.
The next confirmed development is not a speech or a filing but the continued pattern of surveillance itself: aircraft have already been tracked on 11 May, 12 May, and 15 May, and the question now is whether the United States keeps the same posture or shifts the mix of P-8A aircraft and MQ-4C drones near Cuba.
