Trump Independent Voter Polling Shows Half to One-Quarter Drop
-NORC trump independent voter polling shows President Donald Trump losing ground with independents during his second term, especially among those without a college degree. Support in that group fell from about half around the 2024 election to about one-quarter this spring.
The decline matters because independents were among the groups that shifted toward Trump in 2024, and more Americans than ever now call themselves independents. -NORC’s analysis of nearly two dozen polls, gathered between July 2024 and April 2026, shows the erosion was steady rather than tied to one moment.
-NORC Polls and Trump
The polling analysis tracked changes across the last six months of 2024, the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency, the summer of 2025, last fall’s government shutdown and the beginning of the Iran war. Across that span, independents grew more negative toward Trump, with the sharpest drop visible among voters without a college degree.
At around the 2024 election, independents without a college education had about a half positive view of Trump. By this spring, that figure had dropped to about one-quarter. The education gap that existed among independents before Trump took office for his second term had been erased.
Independent Voters Without Degrees
That leaves independents holding similarly negative views of Trump regardless of education level. Trump’s standing has also dropped among Black and Hispanic independents, adding to the broader weakening in the group that helped him in 2024.
For Trump and Republicans heading into the midterm elections, the number to watch is not just the overall decline but where it came from. The loss among independents without a college degree cuts into a bloc that had moved toward him, and the polling shows that advantage has narrowed into something much smaller.
Midterm Elections and Trump
The practical reading for Republicans is straightforward: if independents remain less supportive, the party is working with less margin in a group that has grown larger and more politically important. The -NORC polling gives no sign of a rebound in that bloc across the periods it measured, ending with a spring reading far below the level seen around the 2024 vote.
