NOAA said warming conditions were taking hold in the Pacific, and it put the odds at 63% that sea surface temperatures will rise more than 2C above normal later this year. Economists said that if a 2026-27 El Niño follows, Los Angeles weather watchers could be looking at a global food price shock that may stretch into 2028.
Goldman Sachs estimated that the event could drive a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices and lift food prices in the eurozone by 1.3%. The bank said the effects could take until the second half of 2028 to be fully realised, giving households and buyers a long lag between the weather shift and the price hit.
Goldman Sachs and UniCredit
Goldman Sachs tied its forecast to the strength of a very strong El Niño, while UniCredit analysts said the pattern could add a new layer of pressure later this year as it amplifies the effects of global warming. They wrote: “El Niño puts ‘climateflation’ back on the agenda”.
UniCredit also said: “Europe’s recent heatwaves are a reminder that the climate baseline is already shifting. El Niño could add a new layer of pressure later this year, as it amplifies the effects of global warming.” That puts the forecast in the same frame as the current rise in food costs linked to hotter weather and other shocks.
UBS on regional effects
UBS analysts said El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. They said: “El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. It reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers”.
That means the same weather cycle can improve conditions in some places while worsening them in others. Some regions could stand to benefit from warmer weather conditions even as others face droughts, flooding and higher food prices.
2026-27 El Niño outlook
Scientists said the 2026-27 El Niño has a historically unprecedented chance of developing into a very strong event, and NOAA projections indicated it could be even more severe. El Niño events in 1981-82, 1996-97, 2015-16 and 2023-24 were among the strongest on record, which is why the latest forecast is being treated as more than a routine seasonal warning.
The practical question for consumers is how long the pressure lasts. Goldman Sachs said the consequences could remain unresolved until the second half of 2028, so the next step is not a single weather report but the emergence of the 2026-27 cycle itself and whether it builds into the very strong event now being priced into forecasts.
