The Toronto Tempo do not just have a late-game problem. They have a fourth-quarter problem that has started to define the way opponents close against them. Since June 22, when Toronto beat the Atlanta Dream by nine points in the fourth quarter, the Tempo have lost seven consecutive fourth quarters by a total of 60 points.
That is the kind of trend that can turn a competitive night into a rout before the final horn. And it matters even more because closely contested fourth quarters tend to become halfcourt games, where execution, spacing and shot quality matter more than pace or early-game rhythm. Toronto has not handled that phase well enough to protect the work it does in the first three quarters.
What the numbers say about the slump
Dan Falkenheim’s midseason efficiency calculations help explain why this has happened. Toronto has been listed at 13th in offense with 0.91 points per play, and its defense has not been strong enough to offset that. The Tempo have also posted a negative net rating in every quarter except the first, which is a revealing sign for a team that keeps finding itself in tight games late.
In other words, this is not only about missed shots. It is about a team that is not generating enough efficient offense when possessions slow down, and not getting enough stops when opponents make the game harder. Toronto’s numbers in halfcourt, transition and scramble situations all point in the same direction: the team has struggled to convert pressure into control.
That is why the fourth quarter keeps getting away from them. Once the game becomes more deliberate, Toronto has not consistently created clean looks, and it has not consistently prevented the other side from doing so either. A 60-point deficit across seven fourth quarters is not bad luck. It is a pattern.
What comes next against Atlanta
The timing makes Friday night’s matchup with the Atlanta Dream on ION especially relevant. The Tempo are scheduled to play at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the question is not simply whether they can keep it close early. It is whether they can carry a game into the final quarter and still look like the sharper team.
Toronto did beat Atlanta in the fourth quarter on June 22, so this is not a matchup without history. But the larger story since then has been the same one: the Tempo have not protected late leads, and they have not found a reliable way to win the possession battle when the game tightens. If that does not change, the fourth quarter will keep deciding games for them before the final minute even arrives.
The Dream do not need Toronto to be perfect to expose that. They only need the Tempo to remain the team they have been since June 22, when the margins shrink and the game starts to look like a halfcourt exam they keep failing.
