Weather says UK summer temperatures may stay above average into early August, and further heatwaves cannot be ruled out. The forecast also points to a more changeable second half of summer, with spells of rain more likely at times.
That leaves people in England and Wales planning around heat, dry ground, and a hotter-than-average pattern that has already broken a number of records this summer. Some of those records date back to 1976.
Late July and August
The latest forecast says temperatures are likely to remain largely above average during late July and August. Weather says the season so far has been notable for its heat, and some places in southern England have seen no measurable rain for more than four weeks.
Hosepipe bans are in force for millions of households, and dry vegetation has provided fuel for wildfires in a number of areas. The forecast does not point to an immediate end to the warm spell; it points to a pattern that can still shift toward wetter periods without dropping temperatures back to normal for long.
DTN over the next couple of weeks
DTN’s latest sub-seasonal forecast says areas of low pressure will feature more prominently over the next couple of weeks, especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland. An increase in wet weather would follow there, while the Azores high is likely to stay close by and keep things drier further south.
The Azores high can block weather fronts from reaching the UK, and that is why the south is expected to stay drier even if showers become more frequent elsewhere. Temperatures are most likely to remain above the seasonal norm, especially in England and Wales.
Met Office final part of July
The Met Office long-range forecast says the influence of high pressure may ease in the final part of July. It also points to more shower and thunderstorm activity, first in the north of the UK and later spreading southwards at times.
For readers, that means the practical picture is not a clean break from heat to rain. Late July and early August still carry the chance of further hot spells or heatwaves, even as the weather becomes less settled and some areas see more rain than others.
The open question is which parts of the UK will get the rain, and which parts will stay hot, when the pattern shifts in early August.
