S&P 500 today ended July essentially flat after a month of sharp swings, with a hawkish Federal Reserve decision on July 29 helping drive the market’s worst single day since April 2025. A late-July rebound pushed the index back near its starting point, leaving investors to open August with inflation, growth and labor data still ahead.
The month’s close masks the force of the move underneath it. Housing and other interest-rate sensitive stocks absorbed the brunt of the Fed’s comments, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 and short-term yields fell as traders reduced near-term hike odds.
July 29 and Wall Street rates
The July 29 decision from the Federal Reserve hit rate-sensitive shares first. Wall Street also saw June Personal Spending growth at 0.3%, the lowest figure since January, a reading that fit the broader concern about a slower pace in the economy even as pricing pressure and interest-rate expectations remained in focus.
The pressure did not move in one direction. Renewed war between Iran and the United States drove a rebound in oil and related prices, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was shuttered. That added another source of volatility to a month already shaped by rates and energy moves.
Microsoft and Amazon lift chips
Chip stocks had already been under pressure from AI-capex skepticism and a Korean memory-chip selloff before late-July earnings from Microsoft and Amazon sparked a rebound. That rebound helped the S&P 500 finish the month flat and lifted the Nasdaq Composite off its 100-day moving average late in July.
The Nasdaq Composite still posted a low-single digit decline for the month, but the late move left it closer to a technical floor than it had been earlier in July. The next level traders are watching is its 50-day moving average near 25,950.
Kevin Warsh and August data
The S&P 500 looked like it would start August back above its 50-day moving average, a level many traders use as a short-term reference point. The Pro Portfolio closed July more than 210 basis points ahead of the S&P 500, showing how much stock selection mattered in a month that punished some rate-sensitive names and rewarded others tied to AI and earnings strength.
Kevin Warsh is expected to deliver a Jackson Hole speech in the coming weeks, and next week brings fresh data on inflation, the speed of the economy and job creation. A wave of investor conferences is also expected in the ensuing weeks, while August typically brings slower trading volumes as Wall Street takes a break. For August, the cleanest read is to treat the late-July bounce as a reset, not a verdict.
