$20.26 billion is the sales benchmark for Eli Lilly and Company’s second-quarter 2026 report on Aug. 5 before market open, and LLY stock is being judged on whether Mounjaro and Zepbound do the heavy lifting again. The market is not just looking for growth; it is looking for growth that survives lower realized prices and tighter competition.
Mounjaro and Zepbound drive $13.66 billion
$8.94 billion is the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mounjaro, while Zepbound is expected to add $4.72 billion. Together, they point to $13.66 billion in projected revenue from the two drugs, a concentration that leaves little doubt about where the quarter’s momentum is expected to come from. For LLY stock, that mix matters because the rest of the portfolio has to fill a wide gap if those drugs miss.
$6.71 per share is the earnings estimate for the quarter, and it comes after Eli Lilly exceeded earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. The company posted a four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.52% on average and delivered a positive earnings surprise of 21.10% in the last reported quarter. That record sets a high bar for Aug. 5, especially with an Earnings ESP of -10.38% and a Zacks Rank #3, or Hold.
Foundayo’s first sales readout
April was the launch month for Foundayo, and the second quarter will give the first sales readout for the drug. Eli Lilly said early launch data were encouraging, and insurance coverage for Foundayo is expanding rapidly through major PBMs. That early coverage push gives investors a first chance to see whether the new launch is moving beyond initial demand into something that can help the top line.
$250 million in one-time international sales lifted Jardiance in the first quarter, and that lift was absent in the second quarter. Sales of Trulicity are also likely to have declined as patient switches to Mounjaro and lower realized prices continue to bite, while lower realized prices, including U.S. Part D changes, are expected to keep pressuring sales of most drugs, including Mounjaro and Zepbound. Eli Lilly’s growth still runs through GLP-1 drugs, but the pricing line is pulling in the opposite direction.
Novo Nordisk and the GLP-1 race
December 2025 brought approval for Novo Nordisk’s oral version of Wegovy, and January 2026 brought the launch of the pill. That puts a newer competitive option in the same broad GLP-1 market just as Eli Lilly is trying to prove that Mounjaro, Zepbound, and Foundayo can keep scaling. If Foundayo’s early sales are modest, the comparison will point to how quickly the market is getting crowded.
$852 million, $846.0 million, $1.56 billion, $699.0 million, $255.0 million, and $205.0 million are the Zacks Consensus Estimates for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality, respectively. Higher demand and volume growth for Olumiant and Emgality are likely to have helped the quarter, and Ebglyss, Jaypirca, Kisunla and Omvoh are also expected to have contributed significantly to sales growth. The Aug. 5 report will show whether that broader support is enough to offset weaker pricing and the first signs of pressure around Foundayo’s launch.
