Kirk Herbstreit raised eyebrows on the Pat McAfee Show when he suggested the Iowa Hawkeyes could be a College Football Playoff dark horse in the 2026 season. For a program that has never reached the playoff, the idea stands out. It also fits the way Iowa is often discussed: good enough to matter, but rarely treated like a true national threat.
Herbstreit’s view centered on Kirk Ferentz and Iowa’s ability to keep stacking wins while navigating a difficult schedule. As he put it, he always looks at Iowa with Ferentz as a team that is knocking on the College Football Playoff door. The bigger question, though, is whether the Hawkeyes can do enough against top competition to turn that idea into something real.
Why Iowa is even in the conversation
Iowa has been a steady program for a long time. Since 2015, the Hawkeyes have finished with eight wins or better in every non-pandemic season, and they have reached the 10-win mark before. That kind of consistency is part of why Herbstreit is willing to mention them as a possible playoff team.
Still, there is a clear reason Iowa remains a long shot in most eyes. The Hawkeyes have spent nearly 25 years without a top-20 scoring offense, and the team is often described as playing an ugly brand of football. That can still win a lot of games in the Big Ten, but it is a harder sell when the discussion shifts to the College Football Playoff.
The next four weeks will say a lot
Iowa’s path over the next four weeks is the biggest reason Herbstreit’s comments matter now. The Hawkeyes are scheduled to play Ohio State, Michigan and Washington during that stretch, three games that will quickly reveal how high this team’s ceiling really is.
After that, the schedule eases over Iowa’s final six games. That gives the Hawkeyes a chance to keep building if they survive the tougher early run. For Herbstreit, that is the entire argument: Iowa does not need to be flashy, but it does need to show it can play with the big boys.
That is what makes the 2026 season so interesting. Iowa has the kind of consistency that keeps it in the picture, but the playoff case will depend on what happens against the strongest opponents on the schedule. If Ferentz’s team handles that stretch, Herbstreit’s dark-horse label may look a lot more reasonable.
