Hurricane Polo strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Monday afternoon, and Bryan Norcross said it is expected to intensify further while moisture from the storm raises flood risk in New Mexico beginning Tuesday. The storm was about 270 miles southwest of cities along Mexico’s southwest coast, moving east at 5 mph with sustained winds of 80 mph.
The National Weather Service in Albuquerque said, “Widespread heavy rainfall will lead to a risk of life-threatening flash flooding across much of the state.” A Level 3 out of 4 flash flood threat covers parts of southern New Mexico on Tuesday, including Las Cruces.
Mexico coast and New Mexico
Tropical Storm Polo formed late Sunday off southwestern Mexico, then strengthened into Hurricane Polo Monday afternoon. It is expected to make a sharp turn northwest away from the Mexican coast by late Tuesday and intensify into a major hurricane by Wednesday.
Polo’s moisture is already streaming into the U.S. Southwest, and monsoon thunderstorms are expected to increase over New Mexico beginning Tuesday. The storms are expected primarily across New Mexico through Thursday, with the heaviest risk centered where flash flooding can develop quickly.
Bryan Norcross and the forecast
Norcross, a FOX Weather hurricane specialist, said the storm is expected to bring destructive hurricane-force winds, coastal storm surge, and torrential rain to Mexico’s southwestern and west-central coasts. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four areas of tropical activity across the Pacific, including Polo. That crowded field comes with more than two months left in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the Pacific has already produced 18 named storms across the Central and Eastern parts of the basin.
New Mexico flooding threat
For people in New Mexico and southern New Mexico, the practical issue is not the storm’s center but the moisture it is feeding into monsoon thunderstorms. Heavy rain can stack up fast where storms train over the same area, and the forecast calls for those storms to break out Tuesday through Thursday.
The sharp turn northwest by late Tuesday is the piece that keeps the coast and the Southwest both in play: the center may move away from Mexico, yet the moisture plume can still keep flooding concerns elevated inland. Will Hurricane Polo make landfall along the Mexican coast or stay offshore as forecast models suggest?
