Lauren Boebert polls now show her ahead of Eileen Laubacher 45% to 40% in Colorado's 4th Congressional District. The September snapshot gives Boebert a narrow edge, but the race is still being priced as competitive. Public polling has been sorely lacking across Colorado races, which makes this one of the few published numbers in the field.
Lauren Boebert and Eileen Laubacher
The gap is four points. Boebert led 45% to 40% in a September poll sponsored by an anti-Boebert PAC, while Kalshi put her chances of retaining the seat at 64% and gave Laubacher 36% to win it.
That split matters because the poll and the market are not measuring the same thing. One asks voters whom they support; the other asks what outcome they expect. When public polling is scarce, those two numbers can become the clearest way to read the race at the same time.
CO-04 and Colorado
CO-04 covers the Eastern Plains and some of the Front Range, so the district's political weight reaches beyond one county or one city. The September result shows Boebert with an edge in that territory, but the market still leaves her far from a lock.
Only four congressional races in Colorado were at least somewhat competitive, which is why this poll got attention in the first place. In a cycle with so few public numbers, a four-point lead does not settle the race; it simply gives the clearest published snapshot available right now.
Kalshi numbers
Kalshi's 64% to 36% split keeps the pressure on both campaigns. Boebert's lead in the poll says she is ahead; the market says the seat is still in play. For readers tracking CO-04, the next step is not a new talking point but the vote itself, because that is the only result that will end the gap between polling and expectation.
