Tropical Storm Melissa Forms in the Caribbean: Track Uncertain, Strengthening Likely This Week

A newly named Tropical Storm Melissa organized over the central Caribbean on Tuesday, October 21, and is expected to strengthen over very warm seas as it moves generally northwest to north through mid-week. While confidence is increasing that Melissa will intensify, the eventual track beyond the Caribbean remains uncertain, with multiple scenarios still on the table for late week and the weekend.

Latest Status: Melissa Gains Organization Over Very Warm Water

As of Tuesday evening (ET), Melissa featured a consolidating center, expanding thunderstorm bands, and sustained winds at tropical-storm force. Sea-surface temperatures across the west-central Caribbean are among the warmest of the season, and upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for intensification. If that environment verifies, Melissa could strengthen further—and a transition to hurricane status later this week cannot be ruled out.

Key near-term points:

• Location: Central Caribbean Sea, moving generally northwest to north at a modest pace.

• Intensity trend: Gradual strengthening likely; faster intensification is possible if wind shear relaxes more than forecast.

• Advisories: Routine bulletins typically post around 5 a.m./p.m. and 11 a.m./p.m. ET; check the latest for changes to track and watches.

Track Guidance: Large “Spaghetti” Spread Keeps Options Open

Forecast models still show a wide envelope. Slight shifts in Melissa’s core over the next 24–36 hours will have outsized effects on the path:

• Caribbean track: Guidance ranges from a path near or across Jamaica or eastern Cuba to a turn closer to Hispaniola.

• Late-week turn: A slower storm under weak steering could wobble before a north or northeast turn; a faster storm could reach the Florida Straits or Bahamas sooner.

• Confidence: Highest in the next 24–36 hours; beyond that, spread increases due to weak steering currents and potential interaction with land.

Indicative Timeline (subject to change)

All timing and impacts depend on Melissa’s exact track and intensity. Expect updates with each advisory cycle.

Potential Impacts: Rain, Wind, and Seas

Jamaica, Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba

Heavy rain bands are the leading hazard mid-week, with flash flooding and mudslide risk on mountainous terrain. Gusty tropical-storm-force winds are possible near the core and stronger squalls, especially if Melissa strengthens faster than expected.

Cayman Islands and Southern Bahamas (late week)

Peripheral rain bands and building seas may arrive before any direct wind risk. A sharper north or northeast turn would focus marine impacts first, with onshore conditions deteriorating later if the core tracks closer.

Florida Peninsula and Keys (late week into weekend)

It’s too early for precise wind or surge forecasts. The main near-term signal is for increasing rip currents, rough surf, and intermittent rain bands, especially if Melissa’s envelope expands over the Florida Straits or adjacent waters.

Marine & “At Sea” Conditions

• Seas building quickly across the central and western Caribbean, with steep, confused seas near squall lines.

• Small craft should remain in port where local advisories are posted; conditions can deteriorate rapidly near convective bursts.

• Commercial and cruise traffic may require route adjustments to avoid the storm’s eastern semicircle, where squall-driven gusts and lightning are most frequent.

Why Forecasts Could Shift

1. Core relocation: Developing storms sometimes reform their centers under deepest convection, nudging the track cone.

2. Land interaction: Any brush with Jamaica, Hispaniola, or Cuba can disrupt the core and alter intensity.

3. Steering currents: A weak ridge/trough pattern leaves Melissa sensitive to small changes aloft, affecting when and where a northward turn occurs.

Preparedness Checklist for the Caribbean and Nearby U.S. Coasts

• Review plans now: Know your local evacuation zones and shelters.

• Supplies: 3–5 days of water/food, medications, batteries, and power banks.

• Boats & marinas: Double-up lines, remove loose deck gear, and confirm haul-out options.

• Property: Clear drains, secure outdoor items, and stage flood protections if you live in low-lying areas.

• Stay informed: Monitor official advisories each cycle; watch for watches or warnings if the track tightens toward your area.

Tropical Storm Melissa (2025)

Melissa has formed and is strengthening over a prime Caribbean heat source. Forecast confidence is good in the short term—intensification is likely—but the late-week path remains uncertain, with meaningful differences among reliable models. Residents from Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba to the Cayman Islands, Bahamas, and South Florida should track updates closely and use the next 24–48 hours to finalize readiness, especially for heavy rain and hazardous seas. Further changes to the cone and intensity outlook are possible as the storm organizes.