Nuclear Experts Divided Over ‘House of Dynamite’ Debate

As global tensions rise, the latest film, A House of Dynamite, dives into the harrowing scenario of a nuclear threat against the United States. Scheduled for streaming on October 24, 2025, this Kathryn Bigelow-directed film explores the decisions faced by military and government officials during a nuclear crisis.

Nuclear Experts Voice Divergent Opinions

The film opens with the harrowing scene of a nuclear warhead aimed at the U.S. mainland. America’s leadership has approximately 30 minutes to decide whether to launch a counterstrike. Experts in nuclear strategy express mixed feelings about the film’s portrayal of such a dire situation.

Realism of the Attack Scenario

Critics argue that the depiction of a single missile attack is unrealistic. Matthew Bunn, a nuclear issues specialist at Harvard Kennedy School, notes that most nuclear conflicts would likely escalate from conventional warfare rather than surprise attacks. Bunn emphasizes:

• A single missile launch is improbable in a significant threat scenario.
• Multiple warheads would typically precede a large-scale attack to diminish the U.S. counter-response capabilities.

Missile Defense Challenges

The film also dramatizes America’s missile defense efforts, showcasing the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system at Fort Greely, Alaska. The film features two interceptor missiles, highlighting the actual challenges faced by interception systems as described by Jeffrey Lewis, a Middlebury College global security scholar. He states:

• One interceptor has slightly better than a 50% success rate against an incoming missile.
• Real-world protocols generally call for at least four interceptors, enhancing defensive capabilities.

Authentic Command and Control Depictions

A significant portion of A House of Dynamite centers around a video conference involving military leaders and the president, played by Idris Elba. This portrayal is largely accurate according to Stephen Schwartz, a scholar of nuclear command systems. He explains the procedure when detecting a missile threat:

• The National Military Command Center initiates a Threat Assessment Conference Call.
• Should the threat be validated, a Missile Attack Conference Call includes senior officials and potentially the president.

The President’s Dilemma

The film presents the president with a critical choice regarding a retaliation strategy. In reality, experts suggest the president would likely be advised to observe the situation before responding. Lewis highlights the U.S. policy of emphasizing a second-strike capability, allowing for retaliation even after an initial attack. Lewis states:

• The president would wait to assess the impact on Chicago and determine the origins of the attack.
• The response options available to the president are meticulously delivered through protocols represented in the film.

Current State of Global Nuclear Arsenals

As A House of Dynamite premieres, global nuclear arsenals are expanding. Countries like China, Russia, and the U.S. are enhancing their capabilities, with an arms control treaty set to expire soon. Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, articulates the dire need for serious discussions on avoiding future nuclear conflicts.

The film urges audiences to consider actionable steps to decrease the risks of escalation leading to nuclear war. As tensions continue on the world stage, A House of Dynamite serves as a critical reminder of the precarious balance maintained by nuclear deterrence.