When Will Hurricane Melissa Hit Jamaica? Timing Windows, Parish-by-Parish Risk, and What to Expect Today

Bassyonni

ago 3 hours

When Will Hurricane Melissa Hit Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa is closing in on Jamaica today with catastrophic winds, extreme rainfall, and dangerous storm surge. Official bulletins early Tuesday indicate the core will pass over or very near the island late morning through afternoon (local time), with the most destructive conditions focused where the eyewall comes ashore and tracks inland. Small track wobbles can shift exact timings by an hour or two, but the overall window has tightened: expect peak impacts from late morning into late afternoon, with hazardous squalls lingering into the night.

The Short Answer: Jamaica’s Peak Impact Window

Tropical-storm conditions: Expanding across most parishes this morning; frequent violent squalls and embedded tornado-like gusts.
Eyewall/landfall window: Late morning to early afternoon (roughly 11:00 a.m.–2:00 p.m. local) along the south-central coast, then pushing north across the island through mid-afternoon.
Core exit: Late afternoon to early evening, likely near the north coast, followed by several hours of severe wraparound squalls.

If your area goes calm around midday, treat it as the eye—not the end. The backside winds are equally dangerous and shift direction abruptly.

Parish-by-Parish Timing Guide (Approximate)

These ranges reflect the most likely arrival of the strongest winds and surge/flood combinations. Conditions will deteriorate before these windows and can persist after them in trailing bands.

St. Elizabeth & Manchester (south-central): 10:30 a.m.–1:00 p.m.
Clarendon & St. Catherine: 11:00 a.m.–2:00 p.m.
Kingston & St. Andrew / Port Royal corridor: 11:30 a.m.–2:30 p.m.
St. Thomas: Noon–3:00 p.m. (bands may arrive earlier from the southeast)
St. Ann & Trelawny (central north): 1:00–4:00 p.m.
St. Mary & Portland (northeast): 2:00–5:00 p.m.
Hanover, St. James (Montego Bay), Westmoreland (Negril): 2:00–6:00 p.m. (outer bands earlier; local peaks depend on the track angle)

Note: Add or subtract ~1 hour for nearby communities; mountain valleys may experience delayed but intense runoff surges after the core passes.

What the Impacts Will Look Like Hour by Hour

Morning: Squalls intensify islandwide. Visibility drops to near zero at times. Flood-prone roads and fords become impassable. Early power interruptions likely as saturated soils and initial gusts topple trees.
Late Morning–Early Afternoon (Eyewall period): Structural damage escalates rapidly where the eyewall crosses—roof failures, downed concrete poles, flying debris. Life-threatening storm surge on exposed south and then north coasts near the track; saltwater can penetrate well inland in low-lying corridors.
Mid- to Late Afternoon: Core shifts toward/over the north coast. Backside winds reverse direction, catching weakened structures. Rivers and gullies respond to hours of torrential rain—flash flooding and landslides spike, especially in parishes with steep terrain.
Evening and Overnight: The center moves away, but dangerous bands persist. River crests can peak after dark, long after the worst winds. Travel remains hazardous with hidden washouts and downed lines.

Why Timing Can Still Shift

Melissa is moving slowly and interacting with Jamaica’s mountainous spine. Two factors can nudge the clock for any given parish:

Track wobbles: A 15–20 km jog changes who sits under the eyewall and when.
Terrain effects: Hills accelerate rainfall and can bend wind fields; valleys funnel runoff with a lag of 1–6 hours.

Treat any lull with skepticism unless an official all-clear is issued.

Action Checklist for the Next Few Hours

Shelter now if you’re in the south and central parishes; north-coast communities should finish final preparations immediately.
Stay off roads. Do not attempt to move once tropical-storm conditions are established; emergency crews may suspend response during peak winds.
Elevate and secure. Move electronics and documents above expected waterlines; brace interior doors; relocate to a small interior room on a lower floor above flood level.
Power & comms: Expect extended outages. Conserve device battery and keep a flashlight within reach.
Generator safety: Operate outdoors only, far from windows and doors.

What Comes Next After the Core Passes

The first 24–48 hours will focus on search and rescue, debris clearance, and restoring critical corridors between parishes. River crossings and mountain roads may be severed; coastal towns could face saltwater contamination of wells and cisterns. Utilities will triage backbone lines first; neighborhood restoration will lag where access is blocked.

The most dangerous period for Jamaica is today from late morning through late afternoon, varying by parish. Plan for catastrophic winds, life-threatening flooding, and storm surge near and east of the track. If you are in a shelter or safe interior space, remain there until officials confirm it’s safe to emerge—brief calm may be the eye, and the storm still has more to deliver.