Hurricane Melissa path tracker today: eye moving away from Jamaica, accelerating toward eastern Cuba, the Bahamas and near Bermuda

Hurricane Melissa’s core blasted Jamaica earlier today with catastrophic Category 5 winds before wobbling back over water and beginning a faster push to the northeast this evening (Tue, Oct. 28). Although peak intensity has eased slightly, Melissa remains a major, life-threatening hurricane with a compact but devastating inner core, destructive storm surge, and extreme rainfall. The next legs of the track bring the system toward eastern Cuba tonight into Wednesday, on to the Turks & Caicos and parts of the Bahamas Wednesday, then a close pass near Bermuda late week.

Where Hurricane Melissa is right now

• Position: Just north and east of Jamaica’s western–central coastline, over the Caribbean between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

• Motion: Northeast and accelerating after a slow crawl earlier in the day; forward speed continues to increase tonight.

• Intensity: Down modestly from the record Jamaican landfall but still a major hurricane with extremely dangerous winds in the eyewall.

• Wind field: Hurricane-force winds extend a few dozen miles from the center; tropical-storm-force gusts reach much farther, especially in squall bands.

• Rain footprint: Catastrophic totals in western and southern Jamaica; flooding rains now spreading toward eastern Cuba and southwestern Hispaniola.

Numbers will fluctuate with new advisories, but the risk profile remains severe along and ahead of the track.

Track forecast: Jamaica to Cuba, Bahamas, then near Bermuda

• Jamaica (rest of today): Dangerous conditions persist in trailing bands, including destructive gusts and flash flooding, especially where terrain funnels runoff. Coastal water levels remain hazardous on south- and east-facing shores until winds fully shift offshore.

• Eastern Cuba (tonight–Wednesday): The inner wind field will pass close to, or over, parts of the eastern provinces. Expect destructive winds near any closest approach of the eyewall, dangerous storm surge on onshore-facing coasts, and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in mountainous terrain.

• Haiti & the Dominican Republic (late tonight–Wednesday): Outer bands bring torrential rain, mudslides on saturated slopes, and squalls with damaging gusts even far from the center.

• Turks & Caicos and the southeast/central Bahamas (Wednesday): High likelihood of hurricane conditions and damaging surge on low-lying islands as Melissa accelerates northeast.

• Bermuda vicinity (Thursday–Friday): The hurricane should be larger but gradually weakening over cooler waters and stronger shear, still capable of strong winds, heavy rain, and very dangerous seas during a close pass before transitioning into a powerful North Atlantic storm by the weekend.

Timing snapshot (subject to change)

Windows reflect first arrival of dangerous winds/rain; small track wobbles can shift these by several hours.

Key hazards along the Hurricane Melissa path

• Wind: The tight eyewall still contains extreme, structure-leveling gusts. Communities only a few miles apart can experience very different outcomes depending on the eye’s jogs.

• Storm surge: Rapid, damaging water rises threaten onshore-facing coastlines along the track—first in eastern Cuba, then across vulnerable islands in the Bahamas. Surge will combine with large, battering waves and coastal erosion.

• Rainfall and freshwater flooding: Melissa is a prolific rainmaker. Totals can exceed 1–2 feet in hardest-hit zones with locally higher amounts where bands stall, driving catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially in steep terrain.

• Marine and surf: Long-period swells now radiate across the northern Caribbean and western Atlantic. Life-threatening surf and rip currents will extend far from the center, including around Bermuda and later along portions of the U.S. East Coast.

Confidence and what could change

• Track confidence: High on a northeast track through midweek. Medium on the exact path of the inner core near eastern Cuba and through the central Bahamas—tens of miles matter for where the worst winds and surge occur.

• Intensity confidence: Medium. Interaction with land and increasing shear favors gradual weakening, but the wind field is likely to broaden, maintaining a wide swath of dangerous weather even as maximum winds step down.

Safety guidance at a glance

• Jamaica: Stay sheltered until local authorities signal all-clear; do not enter floodwaters. Beware of downed power lines and unstable structures after the eye has passed.

• Eastern Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic (tonight–Wed): Rush preparations to completion; identify higher ground and avoid flood-prone valleys and unstable slopes. Expect prolonged power and communications outages.

• Bahamas & Turks and Caicos (Wed): Follow evacuation guidance for surge-prone islands. Secure boats and outdoor items; conditions will deteriorate rapidly with Melissa’s acceleration.

• Bermuda (Thu–Fri): Prepare for strong winds, heavy rain and dangerous seas even if the center passes west or east.

The Hurricane Melissa path tracker shows a catastrophic strike on Jamaica now giving way to a faster—but still severe—northeast run into eastern Cuba overnight into Wednesday, through the Turks & Caicos and the Bahamas Wednesday, and a close pass near Bermuda late week. Stay alert to official local instructions as details evolve with each advisory.