UK Braces for Arctic Blast as Snow Forecast Looms

A significant shift in weather patterns is anticipated in the UK as a robust sub-Arctic high-pressure system is poised to unleash a wave of cold air by mid-November. Meteorological models indicate that this change may lead to prolonged periods of lower daytime temperatures and nights affected by frost.

Weather Forecast for November

As November progresses, current weather conditions are influenced by the remnants of ex-hurricane Melissa, which has caused rain and windy conditions across western regions. This system has temporarily brought unseasonably mild temperatures, but a transition is expected around November 9-10, when the weather is predicted to stabilize.

Cold Air Mass and Temperature Predictions

From approximately November 14, forecasts suggest that cold air will begin to push southward across the UK. Initially, Northern Britain will experience this chill, which is projected to extend to southern parts of the country. The latest satellite models from both the American GFS and European ECMWF support this trend.

• Predicted Changes:
  • Chilly easterly winds are expected.
  • Daytime temperatures will remain low, with overnight frosts.
• Historical Context:
  • Notable November snow events occurred in 1993 and 2010.
  • 2018 saw a cold spell without significant snowfall.

Current Limitations on Snow Predictions

Despite the cold forecasts, no snowfall is currently expected during this cold snap. Netweather meteorologist Ian Simpson remarked that while colder conditions are likely, the situation resembles past Novembers where snow didn’t prevail. The possibility of northerly winds brought by a mid-Atlantic high might also affect temperatures.

Current models suggest that while colder spells may emerge towards mid-November, widespread snowfall appears unlikely. The Met Office’s late November prospects indicate an increased likelihood of high-pressure systems, leading to drier weather, yet also raising the chance of fog and frost during the nights.

Concluding Thoughts

Although there may be colder weather on the horizon, such changes are typical for this time of year. As always, weather predictions should be approached with caution due to their inherent variability.