Standard Chartered Predicts End of Bitcoin Sell-Off, Anticipates Year-End Rally
According to Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, Bitcoin’s recent correction has likely come to an end. He notes that this decline closely mirrors previous significant sell-offs witnessed over the last two years. In a report released on a Tuesday, Kendrick stated that the current drop, despite being quicker and more severe, aligns with the third major downturn in the current cycle.
Market Indicators Suggest Bottoming Out
Kendrick highlighted several market indicators that have reset to extreme levels. One critical metric is MicroStrategy’s net asset value multiple (mNAV), which evaluates the company’s market capital against the current market value of its Bitcoin holdings. Recently, this metric fell to 1.0, suggesting signs of a market bottom. Kendrick emphasized that these “absolute zero” readings indicate the sell-off phase has concluded.
He stated, “I think this is enough to signify the sell-off is over and to eventually disprove those who think the halving cycle remains valid. A rally into year-end is my base case.”
Recent Price Movements
Earlier in the month, Kendrick reiterated his belief that Bitcoin’s decline below $100,000 might represent the “LAST ONE EVER.” However, Bitcoin dropped from over $105,000 to below $90,000 last week, losing all year-to-date gains. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $93,500 after briefly dipping to about $89,420, its lowest level since February.
- Current Bitcoin Price: ~$93,500
- Lowest Price Recently: ~$89,420
- Previous High: >$105,000
- Market Indicator: MicroStrategy mNAV at 1.0
Market Sensitivity and Predictions
Market researcher Nicolai Sondergaard observed that market depth has decreased by approximately 30% since the record liquidation event on October 10. This reduction means prices are now highly reactive to even minor selling pressures. Sondergaard noted that while a decline into the mid-$80,000s could happen, a rebound seems more plausible.
He explained, “When liquidity is this thin, it takes far less capital to push the market in either direction, and when you layer leverage on top, volatility becomes inevitable.”
Future Projections
Analysts have suggested that Bitcoin must recover to the $95,000 to $100,000 range to prevent further weakening. Kendrick previously projected Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year. However, he did not confirm whether he still maintains this target during recent discussions. His longer-term forecast anticipates Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028, attributed to increased investor access and diminishing volatility.
