Terry McLaurin, Caleb Williams, John Metchie Highlight Week 14 Regression Files
This week in the Regression Files, we focus on players whose recent performances may not align with their opportunities. These insights will help fantasy football managers make strategic decisions in upcoming matchups.
Highlighting Key Fantasy Football Players
As the NFL season progresses, several players stand out due to their fluctuating performances. Notably, we examine Terry McLaurin, Caleb Williams, and John Metchie as they navigate their roles on their respective teams.
Players on the Rise
- Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears): Despite a rough start, Williams has shown potential in a balanced offense. He leads the league in air yards lost due to dropped passes, which indicates he could experience positive regression soon.
- John Metchie (New York Jets): Metchie is becoming a focal point in the Jets’ offense, accounting for 56 percent of team targets over recent games. Despite mixed performances, he remains a reliable choice, especially given the team’s heavy pass play dynamics against the Dolphins.
Underperforming Players
- Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders): After returning from an injury, McLaurin had a stellar game against the Broncos, totaling seven catches for 96 yards. However, this performance may not be sustainable, as the Commanders averaged significantly fewer air yards per game prior to this standout performance.
- Devaughn Vele (New Orleans Saints): Vele showed improvement in Week 13 but remains a risk due to the inconsistent target distribution in the Saints’ offense.
Offensive Trends to Monitor
Teams are increasingly relying on run-heavy strategies inside the green zone (within ten yards of the end zone). Below are key offenses showcasing low pass rates inside this crucial area:
| Team | Pass Rate Over Expected |
|---|---|
| Browns | -17% |
| Bears | -15% |
| Saints | -14% |
| Eagles | -14% |
| Seahawks | -12% |
| Commanders | -12% |
| Colts | -11% |
| Bills | -10% |
| Falcons | -10% |
| Giants | -10% |
These statistics suggest opportunities for running backs in these offenses, especially as they near the end zone. However, pass catchers may struggle to find scoring opportunities, as seen with the Chicago Bears and the Commanders.
Looking Ahead to Week 14
The upward and downward swings of players like McLaurin, Williams, and Metchie indicate variability in fantasy performances. Managers should consider these trends carefully as they make roster decisions for the upcoming week.
