NHS Prepares for Record Flu Cases: Is Europe Also Affected?

The flu season in the northern hemisphere typically spans from mid-November to mid-February, with some variations. Health officials classify the flu season’s onset when 10% of suspected cases test positive for the virus. As of early November 2023, England reported an 11% positivity rate, compared to just 3% the previous year. This indicates an early start to the flu season, occurring four to five weeks ahead of schedule.

NHS Prepares for Record Flu Cases: Is Europe Also Affected?

This year’s outbreak results from various flu types in circulation, notably influenza A and B. In the UK, the H3N2 strain of influenza A is currently dominating. This particular strain originated from one that led to Australia’s most severe flu season on record. It has since mutated, creating a drifted variant known as subclade K, which may spread more rapidly but doesn’t appear to cause more severe illness.

Flu Situation in Continental Europe

The flu season’s early onset is mirrored across many European countries, although the severity varies. A few key countries have reported significant flu activity:

• Germany: The flu season started 2-3 weeks earlier than usual, showcasing increasing H3N2 cases.
• France: The season began one week early, with a notable uptick in H1N1 and H3N2 cases, particularly affecting all age groups.
• Spain: Infection rates have surpassed last season’s winter peak, with hospitalizations doubling within a week.
• Romania and Hungary: Both countries are experiencing notable surges in flu cases.
• Ireland: Nearly 3,000 flu cases were reported in the first week of December, representing a 49% increase week-on-week.

Vaccine Effectiveness and Recommendations

The emergence of the drifted H3N2 strain poses challenges for vaccine effectiveness. This strain is not well recognized by the immune system, reducing the matching efficacy of this year’s seasonal flu vaccine. Despite this, data from the UK indicates that the vaccine still offers reasonable protection against severe illness, with 70-75% effectiveness for children and 30-40% for adults.

Health officials continue to advocate for vaccination to mitigate severe illness risks. In France, almost eight million individuals have received the flu vaccine, marking a 21% increase compared to last year. However, many hospitalized with flu symptoms were unvaccinated, highlighting a critical gap in vaccination uptake.

As the flu season progresses, monitoring and vaccination will remain crucial in managing the outbreak and protecting vulnerable populations. The NHS and public health officials across Europe are preparing to tackle what could be a record flu season.