U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Escalate Over Oil Dispute

Recent tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated over a significant oil dispute. Venezuela’s government reported that U.S. forces conducted attacks on civilian and military targets late Saturday, causing several explosions in the capital, Caracas. Local witnesses noted low-flying aircraft during the incidents.

Details of the U.S. Attacks

In a post on Truth Social, former President Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. launched a large-scale operation against Venezuela. He asserted that Nicolás Maduro and his wife had been captured and removed from the country.

The Venezuelan authorities believe the U.S. actions target the nation’s oil and mineral resources. In response, they called for mobilization against what they termed an imperialist attack.

Impact on Venezuelan Oil Production

The U.S. has been focused on diminishing Venezuela’s oil exports as a key strategy. On December 10, U.S. forces intercepted and seized an oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast. The tanker was reportedly under the flag of Guyana and was facing sanctions for supporting Iranian oil exports since 2022. The U.S. administration has indicated plans to retain the cargo on board.

• The U.S. has sanctioned over 100 tankers involved in Venezuelan oil trade.
• Six more tankers were sanctioned recently, resulting in them turning back at sea.

The seizure of oil tankers poses a significant risk to Venezuela’s oil output, which averaged around 630,000 barrels per day in 2025. This blockade could directly impact about 500,000 barrels per day. Analysts point out that the fear of vessel seizure is deterring operators from continuing these operations.

The Role of Oil in U.S.-Venezuela Relations

Venezuela’s oil production has declined dramatically, falling over 70% since the late 1990s. Despite this, oil remains crucial, accounting for 95% of the nation’s foreign income. According to Bloomberg, recent escalations may not lead to a spike in global oil prices as Venezuela contributes less than 1% to global oil supply.

Should the Maduro regime collapse, the U.S. might gain significant advantages, particularly in the oil sector. Analysts anticipate that a pro-U.S. government in Caracas would allow the U.S. to become a major player in the energy market, potentially competing with Saudi Arabia.

Economic Potential of Venezuelan Resources

Despite having the largest confirmed oil reserves globally, Venezuela produces only about 1% of the world’s oil due to sanctions and infrastructure neglect. Much of its current oil exports are directed to China at discounted rates. However, the country’s oil production could be revitalized with foreign investment and the use of U.S. refineries, which are equipped to handle Venezuela’s heavy oil.

Strategic Value of Venezuela

Venezuela also holds large reserves of natural gas and key metals crucial for modern technology manufacturing, including aluminum, iron, nickel, gold, and coltan. Access to these resources is vital for U.S. interests amid competition with China and Russia. The potential for political change in Caracas could open avenues for market reforms and foreign investment, ultimately benefiting both Venezuela and U.S. energy interests.

Even with rising tensions, a peaceful political transformation remains a possible outcome. The situation continues to develop as both countries navigate this complex geopolitical landscape.