January 10, 2026: Analysis of Russian Offensive Strategy

On January 10, 2026, the situation in Eastern Ukraine remains tense as Russian forces, organized into various subordinate efforts, have continued their offensive operations without making substantial territorial gains. This analysis highlights key actions taken by Russian military units across different regions, focusing on their strategic objectives and movements.

Russian Offensive Strategy

Subordinate Effort #1: Kharkiv Region

The primary goal in the northern Kharkiv Oblast is to push Ukrainian forces away from the Belgorod border and within artillery range of Kharkiv City. Operations on January 9 and 10 have seen Russian troops attacking areas such as Prylipka, Vovchansk, and Lyman, yet they have not made notable advancements. Footage assessed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Ukrainian forces effectively repelled these attacks during infiltration missions.

Subordinate Effort #2: Luhansk Oblast

Another objective is to capture Luhansk Oblast completely. Attacks near Kupyansk were reported; however, significant progress was not achieved. Geolocated videos from January 9 show ongoing engagements along the Kupyansk-Chuhuiv highway, suggesting ongoing Russian infiltration attempts that failed to alter the front lines.

• Russian units involved: 6th Combined Arms Army and the 68th Motorized Rifle Division.
• Units continued operations towards Petropavlivka and Kurylivka.

Subordinate Effort #3: Donetsk Oblast

Russian operations are also focused on capturing the entirety of Donetsk Oblast. As of January 10, Russian forces attacked positions around Slovyansk and Lyman, with reported use of glide bombs targeting civilian infrastructure, emphasizing the ongoing intensity of the conflict.

• Notable incidents included a bomb strike in Slovyansk that injured seven civilians.
• Russian elements from the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade are identified as active in this region.

Dynamics in Other Regions

In the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, Russian forces maintained assault operations without confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reported an increase in Russian infiltration tactics, suggesting a shift towards nighttime operations leveraging poor weather conditions to mask movements.

Ukrainian Countermeasures

Ukrainian forces have responded robustly to Russian offensives. They have targeted Russian military infrastructure in occupied territories, including air defense systems and command posts. Key strikes occurred on January 10 against Russian facilities, illustrating a proactive approach to countering Russian air operations.

• Ukrainian responses included strikes on a Russian drone facility in Zaporizhia.
• Ukrainian General Staff continues to report successful counter-battery actions, disrupting Russian artillery.

As the conflict evolves, the analysis of Russian offensive strategy reveals a persistent commitment to territorial expansion, while Ukrainian forces remain vigilant and responsive to these threats. The situation remains fluid, requiring continuous monitoring for changes on the battlefield.