Impact of Iran War on China’s Energy Security Explained
The ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has raised critical questions about its implications for China’s energy security. Although China imports a significant portion of its oil from Iran, it remains largely self-sufficient in energy, with 85 percent of its energy needs met domestically.
China’s Strategic Oil Imports and Security
In 2025, China’s oil imports reached record levels, averaging 11.55 million barrels per day. Notably, over 55 percent of these imports originated from the Middle East, including:
- Saudi Arabia – 14.9%
- Iran – 13%
- Iraq – 11.2%
- United Arab Emirates – 6.4%
- Oman – 6.1%
- Kuwait – 3.3%
- Qatar – 1.3%
Most of this oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 2023, however, the region has seen multiple disruptions, including attacks on ships and threats of strait closure by Iran, potentially impacting global oil flows.
Impact of the Iran War on Oil Supply
China’s reliance on Iranian oil presents three significant risks due to the current conflict:
- Disruption of Iranian oil production and export opportunities.
- Threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil flow disruptions.
- Reduced production from Gulf nations in response to security threats, resulting in rising oil prices.
As of early March 2023, oil prices surged over $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, which adds urgency to the situation for China.
China’s Energy Landscape
Despite its reliance on imported oil, China’s overall energy security remains robust. As noted in its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), energy self-sufficiency is consistently above 80 percent. Coal is the predominant energy source, making up approximately 51.4 percent of total consumption, while renewable energy sources surpassed oil consumption in 2024.
The Role of Renewables and Diversification
China’s energy strategy includes diversifying oil suppliers to mitigate risks associated with any single source. In 2025, Russia provided 17.4 percent of China’s oil, a notable exception in its diversification policy. China’s analysts emphasize the need to prevent any country from dominating more than 15 percent of its imports, with Russia being a strategic exception.
Potential Challenges Ahead
China’s energy security model faces challenges, particularly with Middle Eastern oil shipments and production potentially threatened. Nevertheless, experts argue that a prolonged conflict may not result in a lasting energy crisis. Key stakeholders, including the United States, might be compelled to negotiate to ensure a flow of oil.
China’s Response Strategy
To address potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, China has engaged in diplomatic efforts. The appointment of Special Envoy for Middle Eastern Affairs underscores China’s intent to mediate and promote a ceasefire in the region. Should disruptions continue, it is likely that China will call on global partners to aid in restoring oil shipments.
The evolving dynamic of the Iran conflict is testing China’s assumptions regarding its energy supply stability. While it imports more than 10 percent of its global oil from Iran, its diversified energy strategy positions China to withstand adverse impacts more effectively.
