Livingston Vs Hearts: 5 stats that frame a tense Premiership clash

livingston vs hearts comes into focus with the numbers pointing in two directions at once: one side carrying strong away-day concerns, the other managing an injury list that could still shape selection. Hearts have lost their past three away league outings, while Livingston have gone two league matches without scoring. Put together, that creates a fixture defined less by spectacle than by pressure points, with set-pieces, form, and availability likely to matter more than reputation when the teams meet in the Scottish Premiership.

Recent form sets a narrow margin for error

The immediate backdrop is clear. Hearts had lost only two of their first 12 away league matches in 2025-26, but that run has shifted sharply with three straight defeats on the road. For Livingston, the concern is different but equally stark: they have failed to score in their past two league games and have not gone three in a row without scoring in the Scottish Premiership since April 2024.

That combination matters because it suggests a game where first contact, territory, and control may decide the rhythm. If Hearts can stabilise their away form, they arrive with a record that has still been strong over the wider league season. If Livingston can end their scoring drought early, they may force a contest that undermines the visiting side’s recent confidence away from home.

Livingston vs Hearts and the weight of the head-to-head record

The historical edge also leans one way. Hearts have lost only two of their past 28 top-flight matches against Livingston, with 16 wins and 10 draws in that span. Both defeats came away from home, in December 2018 and September 2022, which underlines how often Hearts have managed this fixture overall, even if the road has occasionally been less comfortable.

There is another layer to that record. Livingston have lost their past five Premiership games against Hearts and have never before lost six in a row to the Tynecastle side in the top flight. That makes the next meeting more than a routine league fixture; it becomes a test of whether Livingston can stop a sequence that has already settled into a pattern.

Set-piece numbers may decide the match

One of the clearest statistical clues lies in dead-ball situations. Hearts have scored 20 league goals from set-pieces, excluding penalties, more than any other side. Livingston, meanwhile, have conceded 18 from non-penalty set-plays, also a league-high figure. That is not a minor subplot. It is the kind of detail that can define a match in a league where margins are often tight.

For Hearts, the incentive is obvious: if open play becomes congested, set-pieces offer a direct route to goal. For Livingston, the challenge is equally obvious: if they cannot defend those moments cleanly, they risk allowing the visitors to turn a statistical strength into a decisive advantage. In a game framed by form and absences, those deliveries and second balls may matter as much as possession.

Injury news adds another layer before kick-off

The selection picture also carries uncertainty. Tomas Magnusson has suffered a thigh muscle injury after already returning from a fractured cheekbone, and a second opinion has been sought on the severity. Harry Milne will miss the match with a calf issue, while Stephen Kingsley has a chance of making the game and Stuart Findlay faces a late race to be involved.

There is better news around Lawrence Shankland, who has been building back toward fitness after a hamstring issue. He came off the bench against Dundee and could be available for a first start since January. That is significant in a match where Hearts may need reliable finishing if their road form does not immediately improve.

What the numbers suggest for the wider race

Beyond the fixture itself, the implications stretch into the title picture. Hearts are in a tightly contested race with Rangers and Celtic and want to remain in first place by the end of the weekend, with seven games to go. That gives this trip added weight because a difficult away day now would sharpen pressure later in the run-in.

Livingston, by contrast, have the chance to use the occasion to break a five-game losing sequence against Hearts and halt their own scoring concern. In a league campaign where set-pieces are already a major edge for one side and a clear vulnerability for the other, livingston vs hearts may hinge on whether recent patterns hold or finally snap. Which side imposes its pattern first could tell the whole story.