Recent developments in prediction markets indicate a rising sentiment regarding the potential removal of President Donald Trump using the 25th Amendment. This trend was particularly evident over the weekend as trading activity surged on Kalshi, a prominent regulated prediction platform.
Surge in Trading Volume
Kalshi experienced a notable increase in trading volume as users engaged in placing bets on whether Cabinet-level actions might declare Trump unfit for office. The platform featured a specific contract titled, “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?”
Rising Odds for Removal
- The likelihood of Trump being removed via the 25th Amendment has seen significant fluctuations.
- Recently, the probability of a “Yes” outcome rose from 28.6% to 35.1% within a month.
- This marks the second-highest recorded probability since the beginning of Trump’s second term.
Analysis shows that this contract initially opened at 15% in January 2025, indicating a dramatic shift in traders’ expectations. As political dynamics continue to evolve, the prediction markets will likely adjust accordingly, reflecting the ongoing sentiment surrounding Trump’s presidency.
