Trump Navigates Cold War Deadlock After US-Iran Attack
Two months after the joint US-Israeli surprise attack on Iran, the cold war between Washington and Tehran stayed deadlocked. The ceasefire that took effect on April 8 paused the fighting, but the United States and Iran have not moved to a deal, and Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned on Tuesday about a possible “frozen conflict.”
Trump and Kelly Keep Pressure
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said on Tuesday that the United States was still engaging with Iran on negotiations but would not be rushed into making not be rushed into making a bad deal
. On Monday, Donald Trump and his top security advisers discussed a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war, showing that the talks have continued even as the sides remain apart.
The United States has also kept military pressure in place. The US military imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels on April 13, and last week the United States deployed a third aircraft carrier strike group with thousands of elite troops. More than 10,000 US troops are estimated to have been deployed to the region.
Strait of Hormuz and Energy
The Strait of Hormuz has become the clearest test of the standoff. Competing blockades there have continued to disrupt global energy supplies, and Iran’s blockade of the strait to ships not paying a toll has been felt in the United States, where the average price of petrol at the pump reached nearly $4.18 a gallon, the highest level in nearly four years.
Iranian strikes also caused billions of dollars in damage to US military assets in the region. The conflict has tested ties between Washington and its Gulf allies while leaving Iran’s nuclear programme unresolved.
Frozen Conflict Warning
Mehran Kamrava, an Iran expert at Georgetown University in Qatar, said the war between the United States and Iran can already be described as frozen. He said: Iran cannot afford to have its ports blocked indefinitely and neither can the US maintain an indefinite blockade of Iran
.
Kamrava added: For the time being, we might see a short-term frozen conflict, but this cannot continue for several months or years.
The Quincy Institute estimated that Washington’s costs incurred over the first month of the war were between $20bn and $25bn, and said a ground operation on the scale of Iraq in 2003 would require at least 500,000 personnel and about $55bn a month, or more than $650bn a year.
The next pressure point sits inside the negotiating channel itself: Trump and his advisers are still weighing a new Iranian proposal, while Qatar has already warned that a frozen conflict could take hold if the deadlock holds.
