Iris Duane forecast to win Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill
iris duane is forecast to win Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill in a final YouGov poll before Thursday's Holyrood election, putting her in line to become Scotland's first openly transgender MSP. The same poll projects the Scottish Greens to win two constituencies and 16 MSPs, a result that would give the party its first constituency seats.
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill
YouGov’s modelling, based on polling 6,543 people between April 25 and May 5, put Duane ahead in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill and the SNP in second place. If the numbers hold on Thursday, the seat would deliver a milestone for Scottish representation and give the Greens a constituency breakthrough that the party has not yet had.
Duane wrote on X last night that “Not only does YouGov have the Greens reaching a historic 16 MSPs. But in Kelvin & Maryhill we’ve been moved from second to first.” She also wrote, “Kelvin and Maryhill I would be honoured to be your next MSP … but the only poll that matters is Thursday.”
Scottish Greens and SNP
The projection puts the SNP on 62 seats, down from 67 less than a month ago. YouGov forecast Reform UK on 19 seats, Labour on 17, the Scottish Greens on 16, the Liberal Democrats on eight and the Conservatives on seven.
The Scottish Greens are also projected to win Edinburgh Central, where Lorna Slater is standing against SNP cabinet minister Angus Robertson. If the polling proves correct, the two constituencies would be the first constituency seats won by the party led by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay.
Patrick English projection
Patrick English, YouGov’s head of elections and political and social data, said the SNP had been “pegged back between our two models owing in part to a slight decline in their own vote share, but more importantly, a drive upwards from the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats in some constituency seats where they are the best placed Unionist challenger. Each are now, we believe, winning at least one constituency contest each.”
He also said, “The SNP’s projected majority in our April model was built on the back of winning 66 out of Scotland’s 72 available constituencies. Today, that figure has dropped to 61.” The poll showed the SNP’s chance of an outright majority falling to 11% from 89% in April, while a pro-independence majority at Holyrood remains seen as near-certain.
