Climate Impact Company Sees No El Nino Onset Yet in 4 to 6 Weeks — El Nino Predictions 2026
Climate Impact Company says el nino predictions 2026 do not point to an active MJO or El Nino onset over the next 4 to 6 weeks. The forecast keeps the focus on the Southern Oscillation Index and the Pacific signal that could still turn more decisively toward El Nino, but not yet.
Climate Impact Company and the SOI
The most recent Southern Oscillation Index reading was variable, with a 30-day average of -0.9, and the recent daily SOI was very weak. Climate Impact Company said the 15-day SOI forecast keeps a variable signature, not the persistent negative pattern that would push the atmosphere into El Nino territory.
That matters for readers watching for a wetter U.S. pattern change later this month and in early meteorological summer. Various probabilistic and dynamic models still point to a wetter shift, mostly affecting the Southern States, but the company says that shift is not being driven by an El Nino onset in the near term.
MAR/APR 2026 ENSO Signal
The most recent multivariate ENSO index valid for MAR/APR 2026 was still in a marginal La Nina climate regime. Climate Impact Company said the MEI lags the ENSO phase trend established by Nino34 and Relative Nino34 SSTA, which were moving away from neutral and toward El Nino.
That split between ocean-based indicators and the atmospheric index is the friction point in the forecast. The ocean signal is leaning toward El Nino, but the atmosphere has not shifted into a steady negative SOI, and Climate Impact Company said an obvious turn to intensifying El Nino is not yet indicated.
Eastern Equatorial Pacific Heat
Climate Impact Company said that once the atmosphere does shift into a persistent El Nino phase with an attendant negative SOI, upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean should force rapid El Nino intensification. For now, the near-term call is narrower: no active MJO and no El Nino onset are indicated through the next 4 to 6 weeks, so the wetter pattern change remains a model signal rather than a forced atmospheric setup.
For anyone tracking drought risk, that leaves the coming stretch pointed in one direction. If the onset does not arrive later this month to early June, Climate Impact Company says the risk that drought expands increases instead of easing.
