Department for Work and Pensions Publishes Welfare FYE 2026 Fraud Estimates

The Department for Work and Pensions published welfare fraud and error estimates for Financial Year Ending 2026, covering the benefit system it uses to pay around 24.3 million people. The release estimates how much money the department pays too much or too little through overpayments and underpayments.

FYE 2026 estimates

The department calculates the figures as a percentage of total annual benefit spending, then applies those rates to benefit expenditure for FYE 2026. That approach turns the rates into a monetary estimate of incorrect payments. The expenditure figures used match Spring Forecast 2026.

Overpayments include fraud, claimant error, and official error. Underpayments are attributed to official error, which the publication defines as processing errors or delays by the DWP, a local authority, or His Majesty's Revenue and Customs.

September 2024 to October 2025

The estimates rest on a sample of benefit claims checked for accuracy by a specialist team. The claims used for this publication were sampled between September 2024 and October 2025, giving the release a measured view of how payments were being handled across that period.

Since FYE 2024, claimant error underpayments have been removed from this publication and reported separately in Unfulfilled eligibility in the benefit system statistical publication. That leaves this release focused on overpayments and the underpayments that arise from official error.

24.3 million people

For claimants, the practical takeaway is simple: the department is using this release to show the scale of incorrect payments across a system that reaches 24.3 million people. Anyone following the benefit system now has a published baseline for the size of overpayments and underpayments in FYE 2026, rather than a general statement about error.