British Future Finds Migration Perceptions Lag Behind 204,000 Fall

Many voters think UK migration is rising even after official figures put net migration at 204,000 in the year to June 2025. British Future published research showing that view cuts across politics, even as the government number fell sharply from 944,000 in the year to March 2023.

The gap matters for anyone following immigration debate: most people still expect the number to go down only slightly, if at all. Sunder Katwala, British Future’s director, said, “It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down.”

British Future figures

The research found 67% of people with sceptical views on immigration believe net migration increased in 2025. Among those with more liberal views, 37% said the same. Six in 10 people who would like immigration reduced also believe numbers are still rising.

That perception reaches beyond one political camp. British Future said only 15% of people expect net migration to be lower in the next year, even after the official drop to 204,000 in the year to June 2025. Katwala said, “We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.”

Shabana Mahmood and Chris Philp

Shabana Mahmood acknowledged a 69% drop in net migration in the 12 months to June 2025 and said the figure was the lowest annual level since 2021. Chris Philp responded to the fall by saying, “We need to go much further.”

Reform UK has pledged to reach “net zero” immigration, while Nigel Farage falsely claimed the drop in net migration was largely the result of British emigration. British Future’s research also found a wider misunderstanding of the immigration numbers, with people believing asylum seekers account for 33% of immigration when the figure is about 9%, and study visas make up 24% when they account for just over half.

Immigration and public opinion

British Future said immigration ranks as the third most important issue in public opinion, behind cost of living and the NHS. The group published its research ahead of the latest government figures, and the mismatch between belief and data leaves parties competing over a debate many voters still read in the opposite direction to the official numbers.