Air Canada Stock Rises on CA$623 Million Q1 EBITDA
Air Canada stock faced a sharper test on April 30, 2026, when the carrier reported record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of CA$623 million and then suspended full-year guidance because jet fuel prices were highly uncertain. The quarter showed stronger cash generation and leverage improvement, but the missing outlook removed the earnings map investors use to value 2026.
CA$623 Million EBITDA
CA$623 million in adjusted EBITDA marked a record quarter for Air Canada, backed by record quarterly revenue of CA$5.8 billion. The airline also generated CA$1.6 billion in free cash flow, a level that gives the balance sheet more room even as the company stopped short of giving a full-year forecast.
1.4x leverage at quarter-end, down from 1.7x, showed the company moving through the period with less balance-sheet pressure than before. TRASM, or total revenue per available seat mile, rose 8.7% year over year, while Air Canada beat EPS expectations by 88% and revenue estimates by 5%.
Jet Fuel Forecast Pressure
88% upside to earnings per share estimates sounds like a clean beat, but Air Canada paired it with a full-year guidance suspension. Management tied that decision to jet fuel prices, which it said were too uncertain to forecast with confidence for the rest of 2026.
5% revenue outperformance and CA$1.6 billion in free cash flow point to a business that is still producing, yet the guidance pullback changes how the numbers should be read. Without a full-year target, the quarter stands on its own, and that leaves analysts to build their models around fuel costs rather than management's outlook.
CA$20.89 Shares
CA$20.89 was the trading price cited for the stock, against an analyst consensus fair value of CA$23.50. That leaves a +12.5% implied gap to fair value, while the shares had already risen 11.2% over the past year.
11.2% annual gains show the market had already given the stock some credit before the latest report. The next step for holders is simple: judge whether the record quarter and stronger leverage offset the loss of full-year visibility, because the fuel line now carries more weight than the headline beat.
