Hurricane Melissa Path Today: Category 5 Monster Targets Jamaica, Then Curves Toward Cuba, the Bahamas and Open Atlantic

Hurricane Melissa’s path has tightened into a worst-case track for Jamaica today (Tuesday, October 28). The storm has maintained Category 5 strength with an expansive wind field and a very slow forward speed—an especially dangerous combination for storm surge and flooding. After raking Jamaica, Melissa is expected to angle north-northeast toward southeastern Cuba and the central Bahamas before bending more sharply northeast over the open Atlantic later this week.

Latest on the Hurricane Melissa path and impacts

Melissa’s core is approaching Jamaica from the south, pushing a destructive eyewall toward the island’s southern and central parishes. Even areas far from the exact center will feel high-end impacts given hurricane-force winds extending outward and tropical-storm conditions reaching well beyond that.

• Wind: Peak gusts well over 150 mph are possible near the eyewall, with widespread damaging winds island-wide. Power outages and structural damage are likely where the core passes.

• Storm surge: Water rises of 9–13 feet above ground level are possible along vulnerable south-facing coasts, with dangerous battering waves.

• Rainfall: Totals could exceed 20–30+ inches in mountainous terrain, driving life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

• Seas: Extremely high seas and coastal inundation will extend across Jamaica’s southern coastline and later into passages north of Cuba and around the Bahamas.

If the eye wobbles or stalls near the coast, the residence time of destructive winds and surge increases, amplifying damage. Recent updates indicate a slow crawl; details may evolve.

Forecast track after Jamaica: Cuba, the Bahamas, then a turn toward Bermuda’s waters

Consensus guidance keeps Melissa tracking north-northeast after Jamaica, scraping or crossing southeastern Cuba late Tuesday into Wednesday, then passing near or through portions of the central and northwest Bahamas midweek. A gradual increase in forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected beyond that point as a trough picks up the cyclone. On its current heading, the center should arc over the open Atlantic late week; interests in Bermuda should monitor closely for strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous seas even if the core remains west or north of the island.

While some gradual weakening is possible after land interaction with Jamaica/Cuba and as shear increases later in the week, Melissa will remain a large, dangerous hurricane through the Bahamas corridor with expansive hazards far from the eye.

Timing snapshot (subject to change)

All times approximate; schedules may shift with track speed changes. US/Canada times listed in ET; UK in BST.

• Jamaica: Peak impacts Tuesday morning–evening (ET), with the core near/over the island for many hours due to slow movement.

• Southeastern Cuba: Late Tuesday night–Wednesday (ET) for strongest winds and heaviest rain, especially Guantánamo/Granma/Santiago de Cuba provinces.

• Central/Northwest Bahamas: Wednesday–Thursday (ET) for deteriorating conditions; strongest impacts timing depends on the exact turn and speed.

• Open Atlantic/Bermuda vicinity: Late Thursday–Friday (ET) for closest approach; track spread remains moderate—monitor official alerts.

Why Hurricane Melissa’s path is so dangerous

Two factors magnify risk: size and speed. Melissa’s wind field spreads destructive gusts far from the eye, so “missing” the center isn’t enough to avoid damage. And the slow forward motion increases the duration of hurricane conditions and the volume of rainfall over mountainous terrain. That sets up a high-end flood and landslide scenario for Jamaica and, subsequently, parts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Even as Melissa eventually weakens, its broad circulation will maintain significant surge and swell into the Bahamas and the western Atlantic shipping lanes.

Preparedness and safety notes

• Shelter and surge: If in surge-prone south-coast zones of Jamaica, move to higher ground well before peak conditions. Avoid all coastal roads during high tide cycles.

• Wind safety: Shelter on the lowest, most interior level away from windows. Do not venture out when the eye passes; violent winds return quickly from the opposite direction.

• Flood risk: Never drive across flooded roads. Rapid rises are likely near mountains and along normally dry gullies.

• Power/communications: Expect prolonged outages. Conserve batteries; keep devices on low-power mode; have paper copies of emergency contacts.

• Post-storm: Downed lines may be energized; treat all as live. Avoid wading in floodwater due to debris and contamination.

The next 48–72 hours

Confidence is high that Melissa will devastate parts of Jamaica today, then threaten southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas before curving into the Atlantic. The precise angle and timing of the northeast turn will determine how close the core tracks to Bermuda and which Bahamian islands see the brunt of the winds and surge. Recent updates indicate continued extreme hazards in the western Caribbean; details may evolve. Stay tuned to local authorities for evacuation orders, curfews, and official advisories as the hurricane’s path and intensity are refined.