Statista: Iran War Shipping Shock Raises Alarm Over Fertilizer and Global Food Risk
statista is in focus today as the Iran war squeezes fertilizer supply and pushes prices higher, raising immediate concern for farmers and food markets. The disruption follows shipping turmoil tied to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy and fertilizer exports. The pressure is already being felt on farms and at fertilizer plants from the Gulf to South Asia, with knock-on risks for global food security.
Fertilizer supply disruption spreads beyond energy markets
The Iran war has intensified alarm after a public announcement on March 2 by Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed. ” The Strait of Hormuz is described as carrying 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas, and the resulting disruption has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, adding stress to fertilizer costs because natural gas is used to manufacture fertilizer.
At the same time, global agriculture is exposed because large volumes of fertilizer exports move through the same chokepoint. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea—the most widely used fertilizer—moves out of Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz. A shipping services company, the Signal Group, said 20 percent of the world’s fertilizer originates in the Gulf, while 46 percent of global urea supply comes from the Gulf.
In the United States, the supply picture is tightening quickly. The U. S. is already close to 25 percent short of fertilizer supply for this time of year, as described in the context of the current disruptions.
Prices jump, plants shut, and farmers brace for shortages
Price signals are flashing red. Argus, a specialist energy and commodities price reporting agency, put Middle East urea export prices up about 40 percent, rising from just less than $500 to a little more than $700 per metric tonne as of last Friday. Argus also noted the price is currently close to 60 percent higher than this time last year.
Production cuts are also building. After LNG facilities were attacked, Qatar’s state-run energy firm QatarEnergy halted output at what is described as the world’s largest urea plant after it shut down gas output. With LNG output from Qatar dropping off, India has cut output from three of its own urea plants, and Bangladesh has shut four out of its five fertilizer factories.
On the ground in the U. S., the financial hit is already being counted. Todd Littleton, a third-generation farmer from Gibson County, Tennessee, said he expects to pay $100, 000 more for fertilizer this season—describing a 40% spike from his bill last year—while scrambling to cover the added cost. “When the ports started raising their nitrogen prices due to the conflict due to shipping concerns, that directly affects me here on the farm, ” Littleton said.
Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, warned some farmers may not be able to obtain fertilizer at any price if they did not preorder and pay. Harry Ott, a cotton, corn and peanut farmer who also leads the South Carolina Farm Bureau, said there is not enough fertilizer stockpiled in warehouses to meet demand in coming months, calling the situation “really dire. ”
American Farm Bureau Federation figures cited in the context say about 15% of fertilizer imports to the U. S. come from the Middle East, while about half the global supply of urea comes from the region, along with 30% of ammonia.
Statista watch: trade chokepoint threatens food security
statista will remain a closely watched search term as the story shifts from energy shock to potential food fallout. Kpler, a data and analytics company, assessed that as much as one-third of global fertilizer trade could be disrupted if the Strait of Hormuz closure persists, noting that only a handful of Indian-, Pakistani- and Chinese-flagged vessels have been allowed to pass safely in recent days.
Kpler also described Asia as heavily dependent on Gulf fertilizer exports as of 2024, receiving 35 percent of Gulf urea exports, 53 percent of sulphur exports and 64 percent of ammonia exports. The exports are described as especially vital for India, Brazil and China, with significant volumes also going to Morocco, the United States, Australia and Indonesia. India is described as sourcing more than 40 percent of its urea and phosphate fertilizers from the Middle East.
What’s next for farmers and fertilizer buyers
The next developments to watch are further shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, any additional production halts, and the pace of price increases at ports and export markets. Jacqui Fatka, a farm supply economist for creditor CoBank, said the existing supply issues mean that even if the Iran war was resolved, fertilizer prices likely will not quickly fall, adding that “there’s going to be a tail to this. ”
As of 1: 00 p. m. ET on March 19, El-Balad. com will continue tracking the fertilizer availability warnings from farm groups and the export-price moves flagged by market agencies, with statista remaining central to how readers are searching this fast-moving crisis.
