Steve Hilton leads a fractured California field as Democrats risk a top-two lockout
A new statewide poll has placed steve hilton at the top of California’s 2026 governor contest with 17% support among likely voters—an outcome that clashes with the state’s long-running Democratic dominance and raises the prospect of a rare, structural upset under the top-two primary system.
What does the new poll show about Steve Hilton and the crowded field?
The poll released Wednesday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies shows two Republicans leading by slim margins as the June primary approaches. Conservative commentator Steve Hilton registers at 17% support among likely voters, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco follows at 16%.
The leading Democrats trail narrowly. Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Rep. Katie Porter each hold 13% support in the same survey. Billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer is next at 10%, after spending about $50 million on television advertising since December, based on an analysis by data expert Paul Mitchell for Capitol Weekly cited in the context.
Other Democrats in the race post single-digit figures: former U. S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra at 5%; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San José Mayor Matt Mahan at 4%; former state Controller Betty Yee and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond at 1%. The poll also finds 16% of likely voters either undecided or backing other, lesser-known candidates.
Why are Democrats at risk under California’s top-two primary rule?
The central vulnerability described in the poll analysis is not a single Democratic collapse but a multi-candidate stalemate. The context states the results appear driven largely by a left-leaning electorate that feels uninspired by any single candidate in a crowded field of eight top Democrats.
Because California advances the top two primary finishers to the general election regardless of party, a splintered Democratic vote could, in theory, produce a November contest without a Democrat. The context notes that outcome is still considered unlikely, but it is the mechanism that gives the current polling extra significance.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, characterizes the moment as unusual in his experience, pointing to how fractured the electorate appears and how little knowledge voters have of the candidates less than 60 days before ballots start arriving in Californians’ mailboxes. DiCamillo also highlights that none of the candidates has a positive image rating with voters, calling that “startling” and connecting it to disengagement and low enthusiasm.
In another sign of Democratic fragmentation, the California Federation of Labor voted Monday to endorse four gubernatorial candidates—half the Democratic field—rather than rally behind a single standard-bearer.
How is steve hilton framing the opening created by voter disengagement?
In comments included in the context, Steve Hilton describes Gov. Gavin Newsom’s leadership as an “absolute failure on every front” and argues that years of one-party Democratic rule have created conditions for a Republican upset. He frames the state as a place where, despite assumptions of permanent Democratic control, voters are “sick of it” and “there’s a revolution brewing in California. ”
Steve Hilton also links his argument to visible and day-to-day concerns, citing homelessness, crime, and “smash-and-grab” incidents, and contending that California is “the worst-performing state. ” He calls out sanctuary policies as an illustration of what he says is government failure, and states that people are “infuriated” by perceived unequal treatment between illegal immigrants and “regular Californians. ”
The same UC Berkeley IGS poll adds a separate dimension to the electorate’s priorities: 42% of California voters consider a candidate’s ability to “aggressively fight Trump administration policies” important in selecting their preferred candidate, and 28% believe holding progressive views is important.
Within the Democratic field, the context notes that Swalwell and Porter align with the party’s progressive wing and gained national prominence through frequent cable news appearances and confrontational roles in congressional oversight hearings—visibility that boosted popularity among Democratic base voters while also drawing attacks from Republicans and the far right. Porter, the context adds, rebounded slightly after a prior dip when videos emerged of her berating an aide and a reporter, and she holds the highest favorable rating in the field at 34%.
For now, the contradiction driving the race is clear: a state described in the context as having a long, entrenched Democratic reign is seeing a polling snapshot where steve hilton and another Republican sit atop a field defined by low enthusiasm, limited candidate familiarity, and Democratic vote-splitting—conditions that could matter most in a top-two system if they persist into the June primary.
