Fuel Shortages May Persist for Months After Hormuz Reopens: 3 Warning Signs for Airlines
The fuel shock facing airlines may outlast the conflict that triggered it. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens today, the return to normal jet fuel flows could still take months, creating a longer period of pressure for carriers, passengers and airport networks. The warning matters because the problem is no longer only about crude oil. It is about refined product supply, especially jet fuel, and the refinery capacity needed to restore it.
Why the current airline squeeze matters now
The head of the International Air Transport Association said restoration of normal jet fuel supply would not be immediate, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened and stayed open. Willie Walsh said it would still take “a period of months” to get back to where supply needs to be, pointing to disruption in Middle East refining capacity as a critical part of the global supply chain. That distinction matters: the bottleneck is not just the movement of crude, but the processing capacity that turns it into usable fuel.
For airlines, the timing is especially uncomfortable. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled over the past month since the start of the U. S. and Israeli war against Iran, and carriers have already begun raising fares and grounding flights to limit losses. The strain has been sharper in the product market than in the crude market, with jet and diesel premiums over Brent reaching extreme levels. In practical terms, that means fuel is becoming a cost shock that can reshape schedules, ticket pricing and network decisions at the same time.
Fuel prices, flight cuts and the risk to summer travel
Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has framed the summer outlook as unstable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another two to three months. In that case, he said airlines could enter an “unknown scenario” and may have to cancel 5% to 10% of flights in May, June and July. He added that carriers would not be able to choose cancellations far in advance because the situation would depend on how much fuel each airport still has available.
That creates a very different operating environment from a normal pricing cycle. If airlines cannot predict local fuel availability, they must decide whether to ground aircraft, trim schedules or absorb higher costs through fares and fees. O’Leary also said travelers planning summer trips should book sooner rather than later, arguing that waiting could mean paying more if prices continue to rise. The message is not that a broad shutdown is inevitable, but that the margin for error is narrowing.
The pressure is already visible in regional price data. IATA figures show jet fuel prices are up 132. 1% from a year ago, at $209 per barrel. In Asia, prices are the highest at $228 per barrel, while North America averages $192 per barrel. Even the lower North American figure is still more than double the level of a year ago. That spread suggests the shock is global, but uneven, and airlines operating across multiple regions may face very different cost structures at the same time.
What lies beneath the headline: refinery capacity is the real constraint
The deeper issue is that fuel shortages do not disappear the moment a shipping lane reopens. Walsh said there is refining capacity available once crude starts flowing again, but that it will take time, and elevated crack spreads could encourage refiners to produce more jet fuel. That is an important signal: the market may eventually respond, but only after incentives work through the system and refinery output adjusts.
This is why the current situation is more than a short-term price spike. The disruption has exposed how tightly airline operations depend on refined products, not just oil supply. If Middle East refining remains constrained, the effects can continue even after tanker traffic normalizes. For airlines, that means the recovery path is likely to be slower than the geopolitical headlines suggest. For consumers, it means fares and fees may stay elevated longer than expected, especially if carriers continue to protect margins by reducing capacity.
Regional and global impact: a wider travel and pricing reset
The consequences extend beyond one airline or one region. In the United States, major airport hubs including Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York have seen average jet fuel prices reach $4. 88 per gallon, nearly double the prewar price. Airlines are also responding by increasing fees for checked luggage and preparing contingency plans that include reducing capacity. One major carrier is already bracing for a prolonged war that could send oil as high as $175 a barrel.
That broader response shows how fuel disruptions can cascade into the travel economy. When fuel becomes scarce or expensive, airlines protect operations by passing costs to customers, limiting routes and focusing on aircraft use that preserves the most valuable services. The result is a market that may remain volatile long after the immediate security risk fades. The key question now is not whether fuel costs are rising, but how long airlines and travelers can absorb the strain before the system resets—or breaks further.
