Trump Warns on Iran Blockade as Oil Price Today Tops $126
Oil price today surged above $126 a barrel as Brent crude futures climbed more than 13% in 24 hours on Donald Trump’s warning that the US blockade of Iranian ports could last for months. Traders are now pricing in a longer supply shock, with the next move hinging on whether Gulf oil flows can resume at all.
Trump’s months-long blockade warning
Brent crude futures reached their highest price since 2022 after Trump told oil executives this week that the US would continue the current blockade for months if needed. In the same week, he told Axios, “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing” and “They are choking like a stuffed pig.”
126 dollars a barrel is the level that reset the market’s short-term assumptions. Warren Patterson said traders were losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows, which pushed the price move beyond a one-day burst and into a broader bet on tighter supply.
Iran, Hormuz and $139
The Strait of Hormuz is the route at the center of the squeeze, with Iran keeping it all but shut to other oil tankers. That has pulled oil markets away from early optimism about a diplomatic fix and back toward the risk of a prolonged disruption.
2022 is the last time Brent traded at this sort of level, and the market has already been reminded of where the ceiling could sit if the supply crisis drags on. In 2022, Brent last topped $120 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when the price peaked at $139.
Jim Reid sees stagflation risk
Jim Reid said there were growing fears about an extended stagflationary shock, a combination that would keep pressure on growth while lifting energy costs. Paul Krugman wrote on 20 April that most analysts had been “far too sanguine” about the effects of a prolonged Hormuz crisis.
$147 is the old record level in the background of this move, and Tehran has warned the world needed to prepare for $200 oil after shutting the strait. For refiners, shippers and fuel buyers, the immediate question is whether the blockade stays in place long enough to force another leg higher rather than a quick reversal.
