Banks See Green Shoots in Chinese Housing Market Collapse
Primary home sales in the chinese housing market collapse rose 3 per cent year on year in the first 18 days of April across 30 key cities, a sign that global banks are becoming more positive on the sector. For buyers, that points to steadier pricing and more active new-home demand after years of weakness.
Bank of America Sees Green Shoots
In late April, Bank of America said it held a positive stance on the sector and said market recovery sustainability is becoming more evident. Karl Choi, head of Greater China real estate research at Bank of America, said: "green shoots" and "market recovery sustainability is becoming more evident".
Choi said, "This stabilisation reflects a combination of factors, including stable rental trends in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities with strong industrial and AI-related development". He said better affordability after price declines of over 30 per cent since 2021 has also helped.
30 Key Cities, 18 Days
Sales growth across 30 key cities is one of the cleaner signs that demand is not only stabilising in headline terms but also starting to move through the system from lower-priced stock into fresh launches. Choi said, "We are also beginning to see transaction momentum gradually transmit from the secondary to the primary market, particularly in entry-level and first-upgrade new launches".
Secondary-market listings have retreated from peak levels, easing selling pressure and making the primary market easier to read for lenders and developers. China's bear housing market has entered its fifth year, so a 3 per cent increase over 18 days is not a full turnaround, but it does show that buyers are still transacting while prices remain far below 2021 levels.
Beijing Buyers Return
A property agent based in Beijing's Xicheng financial district said inquiries and on-site viewings from potential homebuyers had picked up recently. The agent said buyers were taking a rational approach to purchases given the lengthy decision-making and transaction process.
That leaves the recovery dependent on whether lower prices, thinner listings and policy support keep feeding new-home transactions beyond April. For households weighing a purchase, the immediate signal is simple: developers and lenders are watching sales volumes closely, and the next stretch of data will show whether the latest lift is a pause or a firmer turn.
