Kamala Harris Potential 2028 Run Hits 50 Percent in New Poll

Kamala Harris potential 2028 run gained new traction Tuesday when a Harvard/Harris poll put the former vice president at 50 percent in the Democratic presidential primary. The survey came after she held 41 percent in March and 39 percent in January and February.

That shift leaves Harris far ahead of her nearest rival in the poll, California Governor Gavin Newsom, who drew 22 percent. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received 9 percent, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8 percent and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker 6 percent, while 5 percent said they would vote for someone else.

Harvard/Harris Poll Results

The Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters from April 23 to April 26. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, putting Harris’ lead well outside the survey’s error range.

Robert Y. Shapiro said the result “shows that Harris is a credible candidate,” adding that “These results, should they continue, can help Harris in getting campaign contributions and this becomes a further indication of Harris' strength as a candidate.” He also said, “But, again, other potential candidates may be getting increased approval among Democratic voters. Her advantage for now is name recognition.”

Newsom, Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez

The poll did not include every possible contender. It left out Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker and Andy Beshear, narrowing the field to a set of early names rather than the full Democratic roster.

Michael Bailey called Harris’ showing “impressive,” but said, “She has a fairly low probability of being the nominee in the betting markets which [in theory, at least] try to think through how strong her support would really be in a competitive primary.” He added, “It would be naive for Harris to think that she would have a cakewalk, but it's easier for her to enter/raise money if she's sitting at 50 percent than at 5 percent.”

Betting Markets Tuesday Afternoon

Kalshi gave Harris a 7.8 percent chance of winning the nomination as of Tuesday afternoon, while Polymarket put her at about an 8 percent chance. The gap between those markets and the poll leaves Harris with strong survey support but a far less certain path to the nomination if she enters the race.