Betmgm cuts 2026 revenue guidance as prediction markets bite
betmgm cut its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion after first-quarter revenue came in below analyst expectations, with CEO Adam Greenblatt pointing to prediction markets and higher customer acquisition costs. The company had previously guided to $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion and said it cannot easily counter the structural shift.
BetMGM posted Q1 2026 net revenue of $696 million, up 6% from a year earlier but 14% below analyst consensus expectations of $810 million. Greenblatt said the miss was driven by "player-friendly sports results" and sharply rising customer acquisition costs tied directly to prediction market platforms.
Greenblatt on prediction markets
Greenblatt described prediction market marketing as a "deliberate campaign to poach licensed sportsbook customers," making BetMGM the first major US operator to formally quantify the damage those platforms are doing to its business. Citizens JMP Securities estimated that Kalshi generated around $304.9 million from sports event contracts in Q1 alone, using its fee formula applied to trading volumes.
The pressure is showing up in BetMGM's customer metrics. Monthly active users fell 9% year-on-year as the company said it was deliberately shedding low-value, promotion-heavy customers, while handle per active user rose 23% and net gaming revenue per active rose 25%.
BetMGM iGaming and betting
BetMGM's online sports betting revenue was $203 million in Q1 2026, while iGaming revenue reached $481 million, up 9% from a year earlier. The company said iGaming growth came from higher net gaming revenue per active player, exclusive content deals and a planned Alberta launch on July 13.
BetMGM also held adjusted EBITDA guidance at $300 million to $350 million and said it is aiming toward the lower end of that range. It reiterated a path to $500 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2027, even as it ruled out launching its own prediction market product because doing so could jeopardize its casino licences in Nevada and other states.
DraftKings FanDuel Fanatics
DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics have all launched prediction market offerings, adding pressure on licensed sportsbook operators that are already weighing customer retention against licensing risk. BetMGM's response leaves it competing in sports betting without a similar product, while the category it blames for higher acquisition costs keeps expanding.
